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Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

4 Jan

Most of the crypto bulls who keep claiming this is a 'store of value' which'll be super expensive one day (Bitcoin @ $1m) have only allocated 1-2% of their capital in bitcoin.

Why only allocate such a small % in a 'safe haven' asset which will be worth 30-35X in the future?

If you were sure an asset was truly a store of value and it was on its way to becoming a 30-35 bagger over time, wouldn't you invest the majority of your capital in this asset?

You wouldn't dip your toe in the pool with 1-2%, would you?

Actions speak louder than words!

Crypto bulls argue "you wouldn't invest all your capital in one stock, would you?" Damn right; I wouldn't and that is because a stock on its own is risky (its not a safe haven).

Equities as an asset-class is also a risk asset but despite this, I've allocated almost all my...

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Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

2 Jan

QE ----> all risk assets 💸🎈

Risk assets = stocks, junk bonds, gold/silver and crypto

When the music is playing, no harm in dancing but important to know the driver behind the asset levitation.

It isn't a new paradigm, its central bank QE.

History has shown us that when liquidity is abundant (music is playing) asset bubbles generally stay inflated and they become bigger than most rational expectations.

However, when the central banks remove the punchbowl (tighten monetary conditions), bubbles ALWAYS break.

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Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

1 Jan

1) Portfolio summary - Dec-end

$ADYEY $AFTPY $BAINF $BIB $CRWD $DKNG $DOCU $FUBO $LSPD $MELI $OKTA $OZON $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $SE $SHOP $SKLZ $SNAP $SQ $STNE $TRIT $TWLO $VRM $YNDX

Return since 1 Sep'16 -

A/c +548.08%
$ACWI +54.85%
$SPX +73.02% ...

2) CAGR since inception (1 Sep 2016) -

Portfolio +55.23%
$ACWI +10.80%
$SPX +13.77%

YTD return -

Portfolio +354.42%
$ACWI +14.33%
$SPX +16.26%

Contd...

3) Biggest positions -

1) $BIB 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $BAINF /4477 Tokyo 5) $SKLZ

Commentary -

During the month, I sold out of a few of my over-extended, richly valued companies and bought shares in a few rapidly growing, more reasonably valued companies....

Read 14 tweets

Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

31 Dec 20

A word of caution -

I primarily invest in young, rapidly growing companies and their stocks are inherently more volatile than the well established/mature businesses.

Sometimes, I screw up and invest in a questionable company but as soon as doubts creep in my mind, I sell...

...out of the position.

In the past year, I invested in $GSX $LK $NKLA but notable that in each instance, walked away with a 45-100%+ profit (before the bad news broke out).

If the business is fine, I don't mind the volatility in its stock but if the company/mgt. misbehaves..

...I admit my mistake and sell out immediately.

As a growth investor in emerging companies, I'm bound to pick up some lemons along the way and this is why NOBODY should buy a stock based on my work.

I make mistakes and am only responsible for my $

PLEASE do your own DD 🙏

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Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

16 Dec 20

@jaminball

SEVERE multiple expansion in software since COVID -

Key question - will multiples mean revert?

H/t @jaminball

IMHO multiples expanded post COVID due to -

i) TINA - when most of the economy was in lockdown, SaaS was one of the industries which was still growing

ii) Fund managers sold the risky stocks and piled into SaaS to protect capital/show performance

When the economy reopens...

... capital will go back to the beaten down cyclicals which were crushed by the pandemic (this process has already begun) and at some point, valuations for the entire market will normalise.

Finally, when Fed stops buying assets, high multiple names may be especially vulnerable.

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Puru Saxena

@saxena_puru

13 Dec 20

In spring/summer/autumn, when I suggested we were in a young bull market, most were still unsure and fearful. Many hot growth stocks were also way lower.

Over the past 4-6 weeks, sentiment has become euphoric, many IPOs have tripled in a matter of weeks, $ABNB has doubled...

...in a day, $DASH has almost doubled in a day, dozens of IPOs/SPACs have come to market, 20yr olds have put up hundreds of videos on TikTok and YouTube recommending hyper growth stocks, people I know have given up their jobs to become day traders and valuations have risen a LOT!

So, the situation has changed quite a lot and I'd be crazy not to recognise these changes.

To be clear, I am not suggesting the party must end tomorrow. If history is any guide, the show will probably go on until the Fed keeps expanding its balance sheet.

Finally, I dont...

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