PM tells millions of parents unsure of whether to send their kids to school tomorrow "yes absolutey they should in the areas where schools are open" #Marr
Asked whether more schools should close: "we keep everything under review"
PM on #Marr: "There is no doubt in my mind that schools are safe and eduction is a priority"
Says things will be kept under review in T4 areas - suggests that closures in T4 areas outside London could be on the cards. Needs clarification though!
Tells councils like Brighton which is refusing to open its schools tomorrow that they should be guided by the public health and that children's education is the priority
Can the PM guarantee that closed schools can open on 18 Jan, he says "we're going to assess the impact of the T4 measures, the T3 measures" #Marr
"In principle it's a good thing to keep schools open. We've got to be realistic about the pace of which this new variant is having, about the impact it is having on our NHS. We've got to be humble in the face of this virus" #Marr
Big vaccine hint there from PM - says there are "three" vaccines and that "we've got Moderna coming" - suggesting the Moderna approval is imminent #Marr
PM: "The situation is very difficult ... we are entirely reconciled to doing what it takes to get the virus down"
PM making clear about the time he found out that the new variant was 50-70% more transmissible: "3.15pm on 18 December" #Marr
Restrictions "alas, about to get tougher" but "tens of millions" of vaccines will be ready but "it's going to be bumpy" #Marr
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The current terrible situation in hospitals & fatalities is from cases *before* this line started going nearly vertical. So the situation in NHS in 2-3 weeks is going to be horrific. We should have locked down on 18 December, when PM was told the new variant was faster spreading
To those asking what would make the difference between tier 4 London with these cases and full lockdown: 1. Clear public health messaging to stay at home and only do necessary trips (suburban London high streets are currently packed, people gathering in groups) and 2. A lot of
these numbers are from people in London who clearly ignored the order not to mix over Xmas.
Have seen different analyses including latest Imperial paper saying there's no evidence the new variant spreads disproportionately faster among children. The data that suggests higher rates among those age groups is because schools were open, not because they transmit more 1/
More evidence/analysis needed, but the point is that, while schools are kept open, even children spreading the new variant on a neutral basis is bad enough. Four days of cases 50k plus should tell you/the government that the best way to control the new variant is to shut down 2/
as many parts of society as possible, until a vaccine can be up and running. The new variant is in control. This is not about economy versus public health, it is no longer a choice. Imperial study says new variant has an extra R advantage (my term) of 0.4-0.7, which means this 3/
<not against lockdown> but I think we need a more honest debate about what is and isn’t working in terms of behavioural/non-pharmaceutical interventions 1/
Cases is London started rising quickly *during the month-long lockdown*. Why? Was it secondary schools? Were people just ignoring the measures and household mixing? Was London always due a sharp rise because northern England had already had its rise and natural fall? 2/
So what are the answers? I’m not an expert, but could it be 1. making people more aware/increasing public health messaging of the risks they’re taking by household mixing; 2. recognising that it’s mass testing, not lockdowns, that really get on top of the virus like in Liverpool;