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Jane Merrick

3 Jan, 5 tweets, 1 min read

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1345841780328165376

The current terrible situation in hospitals & fatalities is from cases *before* this line started going nearly vertical. So the situation in NHS in 2-3 weeks is going to be horrific. We should have locked down on 18 December, when PM was told the new variant was faster spreading

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1345841780328165376

To those asking what would make the difference between tier 4 London with these cases and full lockdown: 1. Clear public health messaging to stay at home and only do necessary trips (suburban London high streets are currently packed, people gathering in groups) and 2. A lot of

these numbers are from people in London who clearly ignored the order not to mix over Xmas.

So when is the peak? What is going to make the difference between today and in a week’s time to make cases come down? How many more daily cases are we going to see?

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1344602773237755904

I’m not Captain Hindsight by the way:

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1344602773237755904

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Jane Merrick

@janemerrick23

3 Jan

PM tells millions of parents unsure of whether to send their kids to school tomorrow "yes absolutey they should in the areas where schools are open" #Marr

Asked whether more schools should close: "we keep everything under review"

PM on #Marr: "There is no doubt in my mind that schools are safe and eduction is a priority"

Read 11 tweets

Jane Merrick

@janemerrick23

2 Jan

Have seen different analyses including latest Imperial paper saying there's no evidence the new variant spreads disproportionately faster among children. The data that suggests higher rates among those age groups is because schools were open, not because they transmit more 1/

More evidence/analysis needed, but the point is that, while schools are kept open, even children spreading the new variant on a neutral basis is bad enough. Four days of cases 50k plus should tell you/the government that the best way to control the new variant is to shut down 2/

as many parts of society as possible, until a vaccine can be up and running. The new variant is in control. This is not about economy versus public health, it is no longer a choice. Imperial study says new variant has an extra R advantage (my term) of 0.4-0.7, which means this 3/

Read 7 tweets

Jane Merrick

@janemerrick23

13 Dec 20

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1338184699680854018

<not against lockdown> but I think we need a more honest debate about what is and isn’t working in terms of behavioural/non-pharmaceutical interventions 1/

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1338184699680854018

Cases is London started rising quickly *during the month-long lockdown*. Why? Was it secondary schools? Were people just ignoring the measures and household mixing? Was London always due a sharp rise because northern England had already had its rise and natural fall? 2/

So what are the answers? I’m not an expert, but could it be 1. making people more aware/increasing public health messaging of the risks they’re taking by household mixing; 2. recognising that it’s mass testing, not lockdowns, that really get on top of the virus like in Liverpool;

Read 5 tweets

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