2) Cloud data warehouses become cloud data platforms as applications read/write directly to the warehouses.
My thought: Streaming data is the new axis of competition here. Bigquery.
3) These data platforms - and other co’s - emerge as new serverless layers which abstract away the underlying infrastructure, compete with the higher level services of the cloud co’s and enable multi-cloud.
My thought: Back to the future with PaaS. Real risk to incumbents.
3) Zero trust, agentless security finally happens with data replacing endpoints as the focus of security architectures.
My thought: Endpoints are effectively irrelevant in a SaaS world. SmartNICs/DPUs help enable this trend from an underlying infrastructure perspective.
4) Business processes will be written as code and treated as such.
My thought: The logical culmination of “software is eating the world.” No code and low code companies will all try to create and own a proprietary data schema of some sort.
5) ML consolidation. Data gravity is real.
My thought: I would tend to bet on the cloud infrastructure players here via M&A, but the alternative scenario envisioned is very plausible.
Original thread (found after I had already summarized).
1) Confluence of the new Covid strain, Georgia runoffs, potential instability around January 6/20 and the “narrow”speculative mania in some pockets of the mkt is worrisome to me.
All consensus, but still...
Caveat: I am generally worried and rarely right in my worries.
2) The fact that I am generally worried is a consequence of starting my career as a professional investor in September 1999 and being a tech analyst as the bubble burst.
Watching the Nasdaq go down 80% shaped me.
3) Watching so many careers end and making plenty of my own mistakes scarred me.
I am prone to thinking a pullback is right around the corner.
Obviously this view has been wrong *way* more often than right.
1) Hypothesis: Outside of Amazon’s mgmt and employees, no one did more to make Amazon the juggernaut that it is today than Eddie Lampert and a generation of activists who applied his playbook to retailers circa 2005 which kept Amazon from having any real competition until 2015.
2) Amazon management should get credit for incredible execution, customer focus & strategic vision.
Part of this was keeping their margins low to preserve the illusion that e-commerce was “unprofitable.”
Every year that this was a widespread belief was such a victory for them.
3) The combination of this absurd belief and the Lampert playbook was lethal to the long term future of many retailers.
Even if they had won the iPhone, embraced ARM and nailed GPUs with a non x86 Larrabee, they would still be losing share and in deep trouble due to the timing of EUV insertion.
2) i.e. Apple would be moving away from them to TSM and they would have zero share in discrete GPU given a two node disadvantage in GPU with none of the advantages in CPU conferred on them by x86 and Intel specific software optimizations.
3) Alternatively, if they had successfully inserted EUV at the same time as TSM sans iPhone, sans GPU, sans ARM, they would be in a better position today than in the above scenario.
If you are 2 nodes behind, nothing else really matters.
1) The "Roaring 20s" followed World War I and the Spanish Flu.
Interested to see if history repeats and we have another "Roaring 20s" following Covid.
2) Think there is a reasonable chance that the two year period from mid 2021 through mid 2023 will see the strongest demand *ever* for leisure travel and apparel.
Credit to Evercore for the idea.
Time will tell!
3) Want to clarify that my “Roaring 20s” comment referred to consumer behavior, not a decade long bull market.
I rarely have an opinion on the overall stock market and certainly don’t have any demonstrated ability to consistently time the market. See:
1) Last week was obviously a huge rotation towards reopening & travel names on the Pfizer news.
Reopening and travel baskets were up +12%ish vs. Megacap Tech, Software and Stay at Home baskets down -2 to -6%. Insane moves in the Momentum factor.
Moderna news likely next week.
2) Curious to see how the market trades on the Moderna readout and likely Regeneron approval given Covid third wave, increasing lockdowns and credit card data rolling over hard.
Setup and positioning are quite different now vs. going into the Pfizer news.
3) Tech and WFH names were strong the day of the election and were especially strong the Wednesday immediately after Biden won.