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Nate Cohn Profile picture
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3 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
This is fairly typical of the allegations raised by the Trump legal team (as opposed to his twitter team) over the last month: ok, fine more folks voted for Biden, but the state didn't follow their laws to our liking, so give the election to Trump
This version, however, is a relatively bold one--as everything cited here was known before the election, and neither he nor anyone else argued that we should disenfranchise Pennsylvania's electorate until he saw that Trump lost
As with the other allegations, they then go further: they not only aspire to invalidate the election but hand it to the loser, even though no one even attempts to argue Trump won these states (as opposed to asserting there were imperfections in election administration)
It's worth noting the mechanism here: throw out enough states to deny Biden 270 (though note Biden still won the most votes and electoral votes outside of the "contested" states), so it goes to the House which votes Trump

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
3 Jan
Let's talk about what the GOP, and more specifically David Perdue, needs to do on Election Day in order to prevail. It's nothing impossible, in my view. But it's worth thinking through where the GOP burden stands after the strong Democratic early vote in Georgia
Let's stipulate for this whole discussion that absolutely no one has changed their vote since the election.
If so, then our estimate is that Ossoff will amass a lead of around 350k out of the advance vote, including what he'll net out of ~100k absentee votes still to arrive
There's some fuzziness on any estimate like this, of course. But the fundamentals here are pretty straightforward, and clear to anyone with a voter file, based on the partisan makeup of the vote and the vigorous Black turnout. It's confirmed in our NYT/Siena poll data as well
Read 11 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
2 Jan
How big is the turnout going to be in Georgia? I have no idea, but here are a few things that loom in my thinking
One obvious thing: there's no good empirical basis for modeling the turnout in this election. But I do think that the level of spending, the stakes, and the type of contest (Senate) are above even the very highest-profile midterm contests
In 2018, the gubernatorial race attracted 4 million votes and voter registration's up 14%. Leaving aside the very important distinction that this is a runoff election, we would expect well over 4 million votes for a race like this
Read 9 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
1 Jan
In-person early voting wrapped up in Georgia yesterday, and over all the Democrats enjoyed a more favorable turnout than they did in the general.
Of course, the Dems needed and expected to do better in the early vote, given holidays and fewer mail absentees. And anything can happen on Election Day.
But still, this was a prerequisite to a stronger Democratic turnout and that's probably prerequisite to a Dem win
As an aside, a huge proportion of my replies in recent days are about age, and I just have to insist that it shouldn't weigh much on your thinking. Age doesn't matter a *ton* in general and certainly not in comparison to, or after controlling for, party and race
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
31 Dec 20
Today's the last day of in-person early voting in most of Georgia (several counties wrapped up yesterday). Yesterday saw the highest turnout so far, with few changes in the turnout patterns that we've seen throughout early voting
This is typically a strong period for GOP voting and so it was yesterday as well. But as we've seen throughout early voting, Democrats outpaced their standing at a similar point ahead of the general election thanks to strong Black turnout
That said, the daily comparison at this point is not as clear as it once was. As you can see on the chart, the last day of early voting is a pretty good one for Democrats. A few counties, including Fulton, did that yesterday. And today will be the last in the rest of the state.
Read 5 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
30 Dec 20
Early voting kept humming along in Georgia yesterday, matching turnout from the equivalent date ahead of the general as we head into the last days of in person voting
The final Tuesday of early voting was the GOP's best day ahead of the general and that was true yesterday, as well, though they trailed the general election pace yet again
A relatively higher Black turnout continues to be the difference. The Black share of the daily electorate reached its nadir yesterday, as it did at this point in the general, but it was still 4 pts higher than at this point before the nov. election
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
29 Dec 20
One question I keep getting about the Georgia early voting is about age: isn't the electorate older, and how much does it hurt the Democrats?
So far the answer is 'not really' and 'not at all.'
The first question is easy enough. As of today, youth turnout is basically keeping pace with the general, controlling for the slightly reduced opportunities to vote. This augurs for an unusually young electorate
The second question is more interesting: are the Democrats hurt by lower youth turnout? So far the answer is no, and there are two reasons.
One reason: there's not a *huge* gen. gap. Maybe young voters are D+20 while >65 are R+15. You need a big gap for modest changes to matter.
Read 9 tweets

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