Children & #COVID19—UK 🇬🇧 SAGE expert report speaks for itself.
📌Kids more likely to bring the virus into household than aged 17+
📌Young people 2-16 more likely to be first case in household—age 12-16 are 7x more likely.
📌2-16 year olds more >2x as likely to pass on virus.
📌Kids more likely to bring the virus into household than aged 17+
📌Young people 2-16 more likely to be first case in household—age 12-16 are 7x more likely.
📌2-16 year olds more >2x as likely to pass on virus.
https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1345661874302578689
2) This 🇬🇧 report was done on Dec 17th, released on Dec 31, based on data before Dec 2nd. In other words, before new variant has dominated UK 🇬🇧 in Dec.
Good news is that kids are less susceptible—less likely to contract virus in the household. #COVID19
gov.uk/government/pub…
Good news is that kids are less susceptible—less likely to contract virus in the household. #COVID19
gov.uk/government/pub…
3) As for teachers, it seems positivity % is similar between teachers and other professions. This is neither good, nor bad. It just means teachers are no worse or safer as an occupation.
4) What about positivity in students compared to teachers in primary (elementary) schools vs secondary schools?
📌It seems secondary schools may have somewhat higher infection levels (though CI’s overlap slightly).
📌Students and teachers similar though within school.
📌It seems secondary schools may have somewhat higher infection levels (though CI’s overlap slightly).
📌Students and teachers similar though within school.
5) What about HIGH vs LOW RISK area schools?
📌Students vs teachers seem to have very low risk in primary schools—but only in the **low risk** geographic areas (green).
📌In the high risk area primary schools, they are similar to low risk area secondary schools (blue).
📌Students vs teachers seem to have very low risk in primary schools—but only in the **low risk** geographic areas (green).
📌In the high risk area primary schools, they are similar to low risk area secondary schools (blue).
6) Furthermore, in secondary schools + in high risk areas, students and teachers had together the highest risk, shown in red color.
Also notable is that in all the scenarios, green or blue or red, pupil and teachers always had similar positivity %.
Also notable is that in all the scenarios, green or blue or red, pupil and teachers always had similar positivity %.
7) Here is the summary conclusion statement on schools and children. From page 1: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
8) Another expert D @dgurdasani1 agrees on kids and schools.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346041403512664068
9) Furthermore, UK data shows that prevalence of #COVID19 in children (2-3%) is higher than all other age groups over age 25, according to @Dr2NisreenAlwan.
https://twitter.com/dr2nisreenalwan/status/1345367244281417728
10) And how does school closures compare among all the non-pharma interventions? It’s one of the most effective containment measures, **lowering R value by -0.15 to -0.21**.
Every bit matters. And we need it now since B117 increases R by 0.3-0.7.
nature.com/articles/s4156…
Every bit matters. And we need it now since B117 increases R by 0.3-0.7.
nature.com/articles/s4156…
11) Look, I hate hate hate school closures just as much as anyone else with kids. I don’t share it for doom and gloom or any agenda—other than stopping then pandemic so that we can return to normal lives sooner and send kids back to school **sooner**. #ZeroCovid is the way.
12) If we have enough vaccinations delivered to keep the current virus transmission R below 1, then I think we can open schools. But we all know that vaccine rollout is too slow now, & the epidemic is just too hot, and we don’t have much hospital space left. Out of good options.
13) UK experts now say the pandemic is “out of control”. And recommends new measures. And takes bold step to prioritize the 1st dose.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346064285978521605
14) cases of #COVID19 in England in children.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346127283694743555
15) ⚠️the new 🇬🇧B117 is a beast of a #SARSCoV2 variant. The variant adds ~ 0.4-0.7 to the R (Reproductive number). What could keep in check via containment, R<1, now with +0.5 added infectiousness, means the virus will go unchecked—very bad. #COVID19
16) and now we know the relative increase in children vs old strain compared to adults. It’s relatively greater increase in kids 0-9.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1347745261670584321?s=21
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