When pursuing a new hotel acquisition with a capital partner, I do my best to identify and box in risks as part of a rigorous due diligence process.
2/8 I don’t believe I can ever truly de-risk, but by identifying the unknowns and having a plan to address, I can ensure a higher likelihood of success.
3/8 It also affords me the opportunity to present a capital partner a thoughtful plan and to be open and forthright about the risks. I find it helps me answer the partner’s questions, even the ones I hadn’t anticipated.
4/8 I’ll do a series of threads about my DD process over the next few days, assuming a property in my primary segment (upper upscale & luxury).
5/8 I’ll also assume a fairly cosmetic (read: no hard construction) renovation with brand and management change to drive a value add thesis.
6/8 It’s important to remember that all the items I discuss will be happening in an iterative manner and (as often as possible) in parallel. Much of this is only “finalized” just before a deposit goes hard, and some not until closing.
7/8 I’ll append each thread here for a consolidated summary of my DD approach.
8/8 Also, and I cannot stress this enough - my approach is not the only one, not the best one, and is likely missing critical items... that’s the beauty of being part of a team; sometimes they do things I don’t even know that make all the difference in the world.
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1/20 De-Risking Hotel Acquisitions Thread 2: Business Plan, Top-Line
We’ve already talked a bit about underwriting, both top-line and expenses, but here’s where we’ll try and connect the numbers to actual business planning.
2/20 Each potential acquisition presents a different turnaround story, and those stories are myriad and varied. For our purposes, we’ll try to hit on a wide variety of items that will help us find and confirm our turnaround story. This one will focus on Occ + Rate.
3/20 Once I’ve established where my post-renovation hotel should sit within its competitive set, I need to start finding the business to get there. What types of customers are in the market, and what drives them, are the first two questions I need to answer.
First focus is on the value-add, and narrowing my risk profile there. The renovation is likely driven mostly by the new brand’s PIP and any material requirements of the new operator, along with any value add items my team identifies.
2/17 Before getting to anything specific process-wise, this is absolutely critical: TOUR THE HOTEL WITH AN ENGINEER. Take as much time as you want. See as much as you can. Take good notes. Take photos.
3/17 Do not rely on seller reps as to conditions, mechanicals, etc. Initially post-tour, I’ll generally price out the PIP as-is with a couple trusted purchasing agents, adding consultant fees, installation, contingency, and warehousing / tax / freight markups based on prior…
If a deal passes muster with a purely ratio based analysis, I move on to a more detailed expense underwrite.
2/20 Here I staff out each department on an FTE (full time equivalent) basis, calculate expenses that can be easily calculated (e.g. travel agent commissions, credit card commissions, etc.), and then a POR / PAR accounting for the remaining portions of each department.
3/20 Since staffing expenses can constitute as much as 70% of operating expenses, this gets you to a much higher level of confidence in your expense model.
1/ - When you’re looking at costs in a hotel P&L, there are MANY ways to project. How do I do it? I’ll talk through two ways, the early-on quick way and the more detailed slow way. There’s a third (zero based budgeting), but honestly, I don’t do that - the operators do.
2/ First, the early-on quick way... Ratio Analysis! The more detailed method will follow tomorrow. Each hotel department can be thought of as variable in one of three ways - Per Available Room (PAR), Per Occupied Room (POR), and Expense Ratio (%).
3/ Expenses that vary with Occ (e.g. the Rooms department) I focus on POR forecasting. Expenses that vary with the size and type of hotel (e.g. Admin & General) I focus on PAR forecasting. Expenses that vary with revenue (e.g. a management fee) I focus on % forecasting.
1/ If you’re looking to build (or buy) a hotel, you’ll need to project revenues for at least 5 years from opening. Here’s how I do it.
First - look at local competitors and determine the most comparable hotels.
2/ You’ll want at least 5, and there are @STR_Data rules around weighting by brand / brand family, but you then take that list and order a STR trend report.
3/ This will tell you the blended Occ / ADR / RevPAR (along w/ supply, demand, etc.) for your most competitive hotels historically, and if there’s enough data you’ll get a fair bit of history (back to 2012). This is your comp set!