1/17 De-Risking Hotel Acquisitions Thread 1:

First focus is on the value-add, and narrowing my risk profile there. The renovation is likely driven mostly by the new brand’s PIP and any material requirements of the new operator, along with any value add items my team identifies.
2/17 Before getting to anything specific process-wise, this is absolutely critical: TOUR THE HOTEL WITH AN ENGINEER. Take as much time as you want. See as much as you can. Take good notes. Take photos.
3/17 Do not rely on seller reps as to conditions, mechanicals, etc. Initially post-tour, I’ll generally price out the PIP as-is with a couple trusted purchasing agents, adding consultant fees, installation, contingency, and warehousing / tax / freight markups based on prior…
4/17 …projects. This gives me a baseline, and this begins the work on a few different fronts, running roughly simultaneously: brand discussions / negotiations, management negotiations, takeover plans, and renovation plans.
5/17 From a Brand perspective, I want to: (a) ensure continuity of reservations system access as I transition from one brand to the next (e.g. making sure I can join the new brand before completing the PIP, joining the new brand family’s res system “white label” / unbranded, or…
6/17 …making sure the existing brand will let me stay while I do the work); (b) understand the brand-related transition costs (IT, OS&E, signage, up-front fees); (c) establish a basic bid/ask on my franchise terms (term, fees, any key money or incentives, etc.); and, (d)…
7/17 …negotiate the PIP (what can I get pulled? can I get it phased?). Ideally I’ve firmed up multiple key capital needs while reducing the cost of my required renovation.
8/17 Further, I’ve refined parts of my operating expense model while hopefully securing some brand incentives to juice my returns.
9/17 On the Management, I need to establish: (a) their operating proforma vs mine, understand how they see upside, and ensure alignment of business plan (more on this later); (b) deal terms (fees, term, incentives); and, (c) transition costs (staffing, task force, system…
10/17 …implementation, etc.). With this process, I’ve confirmed business plan alignment, shored up my expense model further (while hopefully finding some incentives to juice returns), and continued to narrow the risks on my up-front capital spend.
11/17 On Transition Plan, I need to firm up the management takeover critical path and checklist - this includes everything from lead time for staffing changes to cash reconciliations to software / hardware installations.
12/17 This needs to tie intimately with the overall renovation plan, whose timing will drive sales decisions (when to go after what clients, what revenue channels to open), marketing decisions (PR around transition / upgrade, guest communication, web launch, etc.), hiring…
13/17 …decisions, brand-change timing, etc.
14/17 The Renovation Plan is absolutely critical, and with the initial PIP (start with the largest scope of work - it’s easier to remove things than add) plus my / my operator’s value add needs, I start talking to experts in addition to the purchasing agent.
15/17 I’ll loop in interior designer(s), architect(s) (as needed), GCs, and other needed consultants. Goal is to narrow my potential cost window and firm up renovation timeline.
16/17 Also critical - once consultants are selected, getting EVERYTHING in writing... schedule, cost, milestones, deliverables, etc. This will feed into every item above as well - when the work gets done will inform when and how I can transition brands; and, the disruption…
17/17 …caused will inform my proforma, my transition, etc.

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More from @somehotelguy

5 Jan
1/20 De-Risking Hotel Acquisitions Thread 2: Business Plan, Top-Line

We’ve already talked a bit about underwriting, both top-line and expenses, but here’s where we’ll try and connect the numbers to actual business planning.
2/20 Each potential acquisition presents a different turnaround story, and those stories are myriad and varied. For our purposes, we’ll try to hit on a wide variety of items that will help us find and confirm our turnaround story. This one will focus on Occ + Rate.
3/20 Once I’ve established where my post-renovation hotel should sit within its competitive set, I need to start finding the business to get there. What types of customers are in the market, and what drives them, are the first two questions I need to answer.
Read 21 tweets
4 Jan
1/8 On Due Diligence - a multi day thread:

When pursuing a new hotel acquisition with a capital partner, I do my best to identify and box in risks as part of a rigorous due diligence process.
2/8 I don’t believe I can ever truly de-risk, but by identifying the unknowns and having a plan to address, I can ensure a higher likelihood of success.
3/8 It also affords me the opportunity to present a capital partner a thoughtful plan and to be open and forthright about the risks. I find it helps me answer the partner’s questions, even the ones I hadn’t anticipated.
Read 8 tweets
29 Dec 20
1/20 EXPENSE UNDERWRITING PART II:

If a deal passes muster with a purely ratio based analysis, I move on to a more detailed expense underwrite.
2/20 Here I staff out each department on an FTE (full time equivalent) basis, calculate expenses that can be easily calculated (e.g. travel agent commissions, credit card commissions, etc.), and then a POR / PAR accounting for the remaining portions of each department.
3/20 Since staffing expenses can constitute as much as 70% of operating expenses, this gets you to a much higher level of confidence in your expense model.
Read 21 tweets
28 Dec 20
1/ - When you’re looking at costs in a hotel P&L, there are MANY ways to project. How do I do it? I’ll talk through two ways, the early-on quick way and the more detailed slow way. There’s a third (zero based budgeting), but honestly, I don’t do that - the operators do.
2/ First, the early-on quick way... Ratio Analysis! The more detailed method will follow tomorrow. Each hotel department can be thought of as variable in one of three ways - Per Available Room (PAR), Per Occupied Room (POR), and Expense Ratio (%).
3/ Expenses that vary with Occ (e.g. the Rooms department) I focus on POR forecasting. Expenses that vary with the size and type of hotel (e.g. Admin & General) I focus on PAR forecasting. Expenses that vary with revenue (e.g. a management fee) I focus on % forecasting.
Read 8 tweets
15 Dec 20
1/ If you’re looking to build (or buy) a hotel, you’ll need to project revenues for at least 5 years from opening. Here’s how I do it.

First - look at local competitors and determine the most comparable hotels.
2/ You’ll want at least 5, and there are @STR_Data rules around weighting by brand / brand family, but you then take that list and order a STR trend report.
3/ This will tell you the blended Occ / ADR / RevPAR (along w/ supply, demand, etc.) for your most competitive hotels historically, and if there’s enough data you’ll get a fair bit of history (back to 2012). This is your comp set!
Read 13 tweets

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