Thread by @redhistorian

Quiz question: of which prime minister was it said, "the P.M. never moves until he is forced, and then it is usually too late"?

Answer: H.H. Asquith in World War One. It's a parallel that tells us something, I think, about Boris Johnson's current predicament.

Asquith was a lifelong Liberal - the last man to lead a wholly Liberal govt - but found himself dismantling the liberal state in the face of total war. Conscription, press censorship, unprecedented restrictions on personal freedom: all went against the politics he believed in.

Johnson lacks Asquith's intellectual depth, but faces a similar problem. The pandemic is shredding his whole approach to politics: the mockery of the "nanny state", the nose-thumbing at authority, the contempt for rules, and dislike of "do-gooders" who try to tell you what to do.

Temperamentally, Johnson is a sunshine politician, governing when the skies are dark. The struggle to be serious is unravelling his whole political persona: the comic character you josh around with; whose articles shouldn't be taken seriously; who wants you to feel in on the joke

For a politician like Margaret Thatcher, the crises of the 1980s were an opportunity: a chance to put her beliefs into action. The worse things got, the more fervently she believed in her world-view. By contrast, Johnson's crisis, like Asquith's, is dismantling his politics.

Johnson wanted to be Churchill in World War Two. He's ended up as Asquith in World War One: presiding over a crisis that forces him to govern against his political preferences. It's no wonder he's pulling back against the leash.

Ultimately, the strain on Asquith destroyed his premiership & broke his party. It's unlikely (though not impossible) Johnson will suffer a similar fate. But so long as he's fighting a civil war with his own instincts, decisive or coherent govt may remain a distant prospect. ENDS