Thread by @CanuckPlucky

COVID-19 Mega-Thread

On propaganda, fear, and conspiracies.

1/ Covid is real. It’s a real virus with real victims.

But if there is anyhing I’ve learned from the last year, its that media and governments are more than happy to spread fear and conjecture, instead of good information. This is propaganda.

Time to set the record straight.

1a/ I am just a regular joe, who has set out to find what he can, for himself. I went to find primary source data, to parse out what I was able, with context.

If you are tired of panic headlines, or want to know why it’s sane to doubt them, then read on.

2/ I have endeavored to keep things balanced. No skewed stats without context, no cherry-picking of numbers. Everything I’m sharing is publicly available (ONS, NHS stats, etc).
I’m NOT using anecdotal evidence.
I might be missing some things, so feel free to comment and share.

3/So, let’s begin.
There are 2 areas I’ve looked into.
A)How serious is the mortality from Covid, generally? How does it compare to historic levels?
B)How effective have masks/lockdowns etc. been? What would happen if we went without them?

4/ A) Mortality. Because # of cases is irrelevant and impossible to know.
Looking specifically at the deaths in England. Because I live here, and because their statistics are publicly available and cover a wide range of info.

For mortality, ONS stats:
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

5/ Here’s a chart with ALL deaths for the past 15 years. A few key points:
i)2020 clearly has ⬆️deaths. Clearly. These align with peak COVID.
ii)Above-avg months were Apr (+40k), Nov (5k) and Dec (9k). That’s 54,000 deaths.
iii)Peak deaths prev'ly: 60k in Jan 2015 & 2018.

6/ So, how bad is COVID? Well: it’s bad. There is no other way to account for the number of deaths this year.

But lets get some more perspective from History. You’ve heard of 1918 Spanish Flu. But have you heard of the 68/69 Hong Kong flu? Or the 57/58 Asian Flu? Probably not.

7/ These latter two killed about 80,000 and 33,000 people in the UK, respectively (3-8 and 1-4 million globally).
Adjusted for today’s Population, they’d be responsible for significantly more.

And that’s not factoring in today’s busier, more congested and travel-friendly world.

8/ Is Covid “Just a flu”? No.

Flu & Pneumonia is listed as an underlying cause of death on around 25,000 hospital deaths per year. The spike in mortality in April 2020 alone accounts for more than this. No matter how you measure/classify Covid deaths, that spike is undeniable.

8a/ I have focused on ALL deaths, because it gets away from the real and tricky labelling problem. Regardless of whether deaths were WITH Covid or FROM Covid, showing all deaths makes it clear that the numbers in 2020 were definitely above normal during peak Covid.

9/ So, COVID-19 is real; but it’s not unprecedented.

So far, it’s linked to about 3 times more than typical ‘Flu & Pneumonia’ deaths.

Does that justify lockdowns and everything else we’ve done? It might… if those measures were significantly reducing deaths.

But are they?

10/
B) Efficacy of Masks, Lockdown, etc.

“But it would have been WAY worse if we hadn’t locked down or worn masks.”

Right? That’s the justification for these measures – it is presumed that they make a HUGE difference.

But presumption is not fact.

11/ There are ‘studies’ for both sides. Ie: For the efficacy of masks, and for the uselessness of them.

Proponents of both sides will tout their preferred outcomes, but the reality is that the ‘science’ is unclear.

cebm.net/covid-19/maski…

12/ This Meta-Analysis from November 2020 summarizes the mask data pretty well. Looking at 67 Clinical Trials from the pre-Covid era, they conclude the following:

“There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks.”
That about sums it up.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33215698/

13/ So masks may or may not help.
What about Lockdowns? They MUST work, right?

The trouble is, we don’t have good studies, b/c no replicable real-world controls. Of course a lockdown will prevent spread while in place.

But long term? Do they reduce deaths overall?

14/ Without a Control, it’s impossible to accurately say what long-term impact Lockdowns have.

It’s easy to say “Things would be much worse without lockdowns/mask mandates”, but with nothing to compare to, that’s pure conjecture.

I don't like conjecture.

15/ Luckily, we DO have a control, in a Western country which is going through the same pandemic, with absolutely NO lockdown measures (and hardly any mask-wearing) in place.

Ja, we do.

15a/ In Sweden, we can see the FULL impact of a country which has done very little to prevent the spread of COVID. If lockdowns and mask-wearing were critical at preventing deaths, then Sweden’s mortality should be massive. Right?

But it’s not.

16/ “But Sweden is a much less dense country”, you say. "It’s different"

Is it?

Along with great sauce, Worcestershire County has a population density of ~340 ppl/sq km. Stockholm County's is ~ 360. Their deaths per capita are ~15% higher). Same goes for Stockholm vs. London.

17/ In fact, population density does not appear to be any kind of significant factor in the spread of Covid. This is counter-intuitive, but seems to be the case.

iza.org/publications/d…

jhsph.edu/news/news-rele…

17/ So the difference after 9 months seems to be ~15% higher mortality in Sweden.
This is without ANY lockdowns or significant mask wearing.

To me, this is a pretty big indicator for the efficacy of both methods.

In other words; they do a little, not a lot.

18/ I am not pretending to gauge all the innumerable factors that affect transmission and mortality. But it is clear that, if cases skyrocket without lockdowns & masks, then they would have done so in these areas of Sweden. Clearly, that is not the case.

I remain skeptical.

19/ I’m not here to tell anyone what to think. But for me, Covid is a real issue, which is causing the deaths of many. But I am not convinced that Lockdowns, which come with an almost ludicrous swathe of destruction are worth these meager gains.
aier.org/article/cost-o…

20/If you are a Covid Denier, and think ‘Fauxvid’ is a scam, then I think you’re ignoring all the very valid evidence. The deaths are there and counted. Forget the anecdotal evidence. Forget the testing issues. The reality is that more people have died this year. That’s telling.

21/ If you live in fear of Covid, and think there is no cost too great to combat this thing, you have been taken in by Fearmongering. It’s bad, not apocalyptic. We’ve been through its like before.
I hope you understand why ppl are skeptical of lockdowns and their very real cost.

22/ If you take away ANYTHING from this thread, I hope it is perspective. As with most things, I the real truth does not lie on the extremes (it is neither a hoax, nor the worst pandemic ever), but somewhere in the middle.

I hope this has been helpful.

/end

Apologies for above image on left. Graph shows Flu admissions per week, not per day. That's a typo on my part.