Time for my first thread of 2021: Today, How I Measure Myself: a 2020 Report!

With some related thoughts on evaluating management and picking investment managers.

Important note: underlying everything that follows is integrity and trust. Without that, nothing matters.
1) Day to Day: Business Basics

Did I “keep the trains running on time” in 2020? Yes

Do I know how I measure my performance? Yes

How was my performance? Satisfactory

Overall grade: A- (I wasn’t aggressive enough in the markets at the bottom)
Management Thought: Passion not Emotion

Emotional investment decisions tend to be bad investment decisions, but passion keeps somebody in the game - especially when things get difficult

Equally true for investment managers and company management.

Don’t want:
Management Thought 2: Do managers clearly communicate how they are measured and how they evaluate others?

For example, any CEO’s (or investors) job is to allocate capital. Do they measure their effectiveness at allocating capital? How?

Don’t want: “Just need more money”
2) Management Skill: Strategy and Tactics

Few are excellent at both. For example, asset allocation vs trading. Or looking at different asset classes.

Am I humble enough to admit where my circle of competence ends? Do I partner/hire - especially outside that?

2020 grade: A
Management Thought: Has the GP (or CEO) brought in help for effective scaling? Have they hired to fill their own weaknesses?

Important Note: Are incentives aligned up and down the organization for everyone’s success? Are these incentives clearly communicated?

Don’t want:
3) Innovation : Learning From Others

AKA: Am I humble enough to continue learning? Am I courageous enough to put innovations into practice?

2020 Grade: C+

I was adequate on the learning side (thanks to many of you), but I let fear prevent me from taking more risk.

For Me:
Management Thought: Continuous vs Discontinuous Change

Incremental vs Exponential decisions/action

What kind of manager am I talking too? Is the incrementalism willing open to exponential threats/opportunities (and vice versa)?

Am I aligned with their philosophy?

Do I want?
4) Community Engagement: Do I Look Outside Myself?

It’s a big world out there. Am I a good husband/father/grandfather/friend and citizen? Do I genuinely try to help people?

Do I try to deepen and relationships that are important to me?

2020 Grade: A-
Management Thought: business is better with good people

I’m not really into ESG investing, but I do believe in “do well by doing good.”

I don’t think that’s the reason to “do good” but I do believe doing good is simply the right thing.
Final Thought 1: you’ll notice many of these can’t be measured numerically

The best success I’ve had with resolutions/goals/performance metrics has been with things that CAN’T be measured with a number.

Performance evaluation is more art than science

H/t @katiepwilles 😂😂😂
Final Final: This works for me because I tend to be my harshest critic.

I’ve already failed one 2021 goal: eliminating my twitter typo’s, etc.

I can be better, and I will be better!

Here’s to 2021!

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More from @SkolCapital

9 Dec 20
It’s time for everyone’s favorite game: “Value That Company”

This week: a services company with exactly one client: $AAPL

$6.6 M Revenue TTM (flat during COVID, 20% growth LY)
$4.5 M COGS (explained below)
$850k SG&A (depreciation ~0)
$1.25 M Net Income

A note below...
This company has 10 employees that run around the world refurbishing woodwork (mostly tables) in Apple stores. Most of the expense (labor, travel, etc) goes into COGS.

My thoughts tomorrow, but I can’t wait to see what you come up with!
Also, a final note from last week on the Pest Control deal ... Did you know that per the Department of Agriculture, Pest Control is an “essential service?”

My thoughts on the Apple supplier tomorrow!
Read 4 tweets
4 Dec 20
UPDATE: As promised, my thoughts...

1) Thank you to everyone for participating! Yes, I’m a nerd so I enjoy this, but it’s also a learning exercise for me. FinTwit is a wonderful place!

2) As I’ll explain below, my belief is this company is worth $15 M OR $30 M (LOL)
The challenge here is the zero growth unless additional capital is provided. So there are three options:

A) Sell to a strategic (another pest company). It’s well established in this industry that these companies can be had for $1.5x ARR so in this case ~$15 M
B) They could not sell, in which case I think @guessworkinvest makes a pretty compelling case below that the business is worth ~$30 M if they just sat and harvested the cash flow.
Read 7 tweets
3 Dec 20
It’s time for another edition of “Value that company!”

Today, Pest Control - NW US!

$10 M ARR (24k customers at $100/q plus a little one-time)
95+% Customers are on cc autopay.
80% GM
$1.5 M SG&A
20% attrition in customer contracts can be replaced with part of SG&A
Additional additional grown can be had for 1x first year revenue (see thread below) ...

What’s the value of the company? My thoughts tomorrow!
Growth
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec 20
Yesterday, as I was responding to a message on MLM’s I realized it was time for another mezz thread.

This morning when I was responding to a different message about placebos I realized the time is now!

This week: “Are you kidding me?”

Or:
MLM’s are big (and controversial) in Utah.

$NUS was early (I have several friends that made serious money there), but there are dozens of imitators because everyone wants to move up.
Let’s pause here to ask a question: Why Utah? Two answers

1) Mormon missionaries cover the world, and many have language abilities when they get home. MLM’s are especially big in Asia so some synergy exists.

2) Is more problematic, but I believe it’s true...
Read 18 tweets
23 Nov 20
It’s time to #GiveThanks

What does a monk, a maverick, the Illuminati, and a “cereal killer” have to do with mezzanine finance?

Time for a thread!
Late 1950’s : Dad is attending West High in SLC. Classmates include (soon to be) Gail and Larry Miller (below) who would go on to be long-time owners of the Utah Jazz.

More importantly, the woman who would become my mother was the year behind Dad in school.
60’s: Dad attends Columbia College in New York eventually earning a bachelors and PHD in Economics (no Masters)...
Read 18 tweets
16 Nov 20
Why did I start a new, different job shortly after starting my mezz fund?

Related: Why am I biased against specialty retail?

Given the $SPG / $TCO news, it’s time for a mezz thread...

Today, the beginning of my mezz fund...
2012: I was helping my parents with their investments, and had developed the idea for what would become Mountain Mezzanine.

We’d do a traditional mezz fund, but go downstream in terms of check size, etc.

I loved this plan and was having the time of my life getting started.
Meanwhile, Dad was mostly retired but had taken a controlling position in a small specialty retailer (80-100 stores). They were struggling. Dad called one day:

Dad: “Hey, I need you to come over here as CFO”

Me: “Umm; I just started the mezz thing”

Dad: “Yeah”

Me:
Read 13 tweets

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