Merging general results, the voter file, and vote history data, it's clear drop-off among white Republicans drives the racial differences in #GASenateRunoff turnout I've identified throughout early voting. (1/x) #gapol
First, everyone needs to exit the coastal mindset re: white voters. In GA, there are only 44 precincts where whites are more than 80% of the voters and Perdue got less than 40% of the vote, for a grand total of about 85,000 white voters concentrated in DeKalb and Fulton. (2/x)
OTOH, 1.4 million white voters live in the 850 precincts that are >80% white and voted more than 60% for Perdue. These are the precincts I'll be watching tonight. (3/x)
64% of white general election voters in white Democratic precincts have already voted. Only 30% of white voters in white Republican precincts have voted. (4/5)
Sure, early voting was more popular for whites in Democratic precincts. 90% voted early in the general. But, in Republican precincts 74% of white general voters voted early, too. Republicans really do need implausibly high turnout today. (5/5)
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