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Sean T at RCP Profile picture
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6 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
This chart sort of explains what is happening: 1/
The x-axis is the two party vote in November for Ossoff, the right axis is the two party vote in January for Ossoff in counties where at least 85% of the vote is in. 2/
The diagonal line has a slop of 1 and an intercept of 0.009 -- basically is is the margin needed in each county for Ossoff to win. The dots are sized by population. 3/
Long story short, so far Ossoff is doing what he needs to do, but the remaining Election Day vote may drag those dots down. I don't think it will enough for Perdue, and continue to think Ds are favored for now.

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More from @SeanTrende

Sean T at RCP Profile picture
18 Dec 20
We talk a lot about how America has fractured culturally over the past 40 years, and this is such an interesting illustration. I'm not particularly red culturally, don't watch a lot of network television, etc., and I've *heard* of one of these movies and four of these shows. 1/
In the 80s and even the 90s it would have been practically impossible for a President to offer up a list like this and have it be the case. The most-watched show in TV history is still the M.A.S.H. series finale (which was bad, but everyone watched it). 2/
This isn't 100% bad; from googling a lot of these shows relate stories that wouldn't have been told when you had three networks all fighting over the same basic demographic. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
17 Dec 20
So this is a conceptual methods/stats question that I feel like I have an answer to, but I'm not sure it's the right one (my understanding will be 3-4 tweets in). When you do a regression on observational data, why do you report any confidence intervals? 1/
For example, if you regress electoral outcomes in U.S. counties on demographic characteristics, you have a census. There's no uncertainty there about the conditional means. 2/
I *think* the answer is that we're imagining a potential universe of infinite outcomes that this particular election was selected from, but I don't know if that's particularly satisfying? Am I missing something? Is this just another pathology of frequentism? 3/3
Read 4 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
16 Dec 20
Crazy to think that Thurmond's strategy of throwing the election to the House in 1948 where Dixiecrats could play kingmaker came 10k voters in OH/CA away from working. 1/
I mean, it's probably one of the most consequential near-misses to our modern political timeline. Truman gets 303 E.V.s in 1948. He wins OH by 7,100 votes and CA by 17,900. If that flips no one gets a majority and it goes to the House. 2/
After the 1948 elections, the Democrats controlled 25 House delegations, 19 for Republicans, and 4 split. But 11 of the House delegations were controlled by Southern Democrats. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
27 Nov 20
If you're going to opine on the Roman Catholic Diocese opinion, do yourself a favor and read the actual per curiam opinion, and not just Gorsuch's (non-binding, solo) concurrence.
In particular, the per curiam suggests pretty clearly that you can, in fact, regulate churches during COVID. In particular, you seem to be able to tie attendance to the size of the facility. 2/
It seems fairly obvious that the danger in, say, St. Patrick's Cathedral is roughly the same whether you allow 10 or 25 or 50 people to worship. That probably isn't true of the neighborhood chapel. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
9 Nov 20
For those asking, here's deaths: Image
New England 2/ Image
Mid-Atl 3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Sean T at RCP Profile picture
9 Nov 20
So with the election over, maybe I'll go back to the COVID data beat . . . eh on second thought who wants to talk 2022? Image
New England. 2/ Image
Mid-Atlantic 3/ Image
Read 11 tweets

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