Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️CRUSH VIRUS NOW OR ELSE WE ARE SCREWED: Denmark’s CDC thinks new B117 #SARSCoV2 variant is so much more contagious (R +0.4 to +0.7) & inevitable that **if any country does not crush the R<0.7 now**, we will be completely #COVID19 screwed by Feb/March.🧵
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…

2) "it is crucial to turn the epidemic curve around and get the reproduction number significantly below 1 in the coming weeks, so that the infection rates are as low as possible when cluster B.1.1.7 becomes the dominant virus in mid-February."

3) Basically, Denmark 🇩🇰’s CDC (@SSI_dk) is so pessimistic that it believes the B117 will inevitably dominate the country and likely the world by Feb/March. And with its higher R of contagiousness, we either stop it now or we are completely screwed by spring time.

4) I’m not citing SSI from nothing— I’ve worked with Denmark 🇩🇰 @SSI_dk for years. They are one of the most premier public health institutes in the world. They are the CDC + NIH + BARDA all in one and incredibly thoughtful. They are not fear mongers or alarmists usually.

5) To be clear—even if we hold the virus in check with a minimum R=0.96... by the time the new virus variant takes hold, it will be woefully insufficient, since the B117 strain is 40-80% more infectious (multiply current R*1.4 or *1.8). Other experts agree....

6) Notably, the virus is such a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.

➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x!

HT @GosiaGasperoPhD

7) But here is the real problem, what use to work enough to crush the R<1 will no longer cut it under the new virus B117 variant. Only the mostly extreme measures will now cut it.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1346620196736413696

8) Now suppose we want to chase #ZeroCovid with Austria 🇦🇹’s spring 2020 aggressive strategy... what would used to take just 45 days to reach zero #COVID19 cases with old variants suppressed to R=0.54, now would require **190 days** w/ B117 strain burning at R=0.864 ➡️4x longer!!

9) basically, what both Denmark 🇩🇰 CDC and what UK @IndependentSage are trying to tell us is that with the B117 variant being 40-80% more infectious... we are totally screwed if we don’t act now. It’s not rhetorical—“pandemic is out of control now”. Get serious or suffer in Feb/M

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1346064285978521605

10) “it is our assessment that this variant of concern may over time, replace other circulating lineages, as seen in the 🇬🇧, and increasingly in Denmark”, WHO Europe @hans_kluge said. “W/ increased transmissibility, and similar disease severity, the variant does ... raise alarm."

11) and now we know the relative increase in children vs old strain compared to adults. It’s relatively greater increase in kids 0-9.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1347745261670584321?s=21

https://t.co/MKEmORjIVx