On 10/26 I predicted a version of what is unfolding in the Capital today. I wasn't alone. Scientists & experts have warned for months (years) of the powder keg brewing in our information ecosystem. How does this happen & how can we stop it? Read on👇🏽link.medium.com/maKhkqBRPcb
"Research shows that “rumors form an essential part of the riot process.” They mobilize ordinary people to do what they would not normally do. They stoke violence through fear. They commit protestors to a line of action they would not normally take and can’t easily retreat from."
The platforms are beginning to respond: Facebook and Instagram ban Trump for 24 hours. theverge.com/2021/1/6/22218…
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For those of you who like to sample before you buy, here is a sneak peak at the book in 12 acts 1/
[Chapter 1] opens with the annexation of Crimea as a leading example of the geopolitical impact of the New Social Age. It provides new evidence on the role of social media in the Crimean annexation - the first forceful redrawing of European borders since WWII. 2/
[Chapter 2] traces the Rise of Fake News all the way to the End of Reality, covering its impact on elections & democracy, business & markets and our public health like #Covid_19. It covers the science of fake news and the implications of the rise cheap, ubiquitous #deepfakes 3/
I think this is one of the main entry points into the debate: Regardless of levels there's a debate about the marginal effect of technology which is largely on the side of narrowing consumption deeply (within) and broadly (across) choice areas 1/t
Then there's the question about the impact of a marginal change: levels data suggests narrow consumption is not the norm, but what do marginal changes in consumption do to beliefs and behaviors (that's largely unknown) 2/
I think the argument that there are large swaths of society that only consume narrowly and don't overlap and that technology caused that is wrong but is also a straw man 3/
[🚨New Paper🚨] Published today in Management Science @INFORMS with @dhillon_p on "Digital Paywall Design."
We collaborated with the @nytimes to analyze a natural experiment on how "digital paywall design" impacts publishers' subscription rates and revenues. 1/
The study tracked the browsing behavior of 177M unique visitors who accumulated over 777M page views, from which we constructed a 30M person quasi-experimental panel over the 7-month study. 2/
We used a quasi-experiment to track how changes to the @nytimes paywall design affected content consumption, subscriptions and revenues. 3/
[🚨NEW WORKING PAPER🚨] As local governments reopen, we study how policies in one region affect mobility & social distancing in other regions & the consequences of uncoordinated policy responses to #Covid_19. 1/
The key takeaway is a state or county's policies significantly affect mobility in other states & counties -- not just in geographically proximate states but often a great distance through long distance travel & influence over social media and other communication technology. 2/
We combined daily, county-level policy data w/ movement from over 27M mobile devices, social networks among 220M FB users, daily weather from 62K weather stations & county-level census data to estimate geographic & social network spillovers in regional policies across the US. 3/
[The Threat to Florida] There are good reasons to suspect Florida will be the next #coronavirus hotspot in the U.S. and that it will eventually be one of the hardest hit regions. Several unfortunate facts point to this possibility... 1/
Kinsa Health, a smart thermometer company using thermometer readings across the US to predict where COVID-19 might strike next, is reporting "the level of illness in Florida is 2X what we would expect," & is experiencing the most abnormal spikes in temperature (see the map) 2/
Although correlation is not causation and many things could be associated with elevated temperatures, large numbers of simultaneous temperature *increases* during a pandemic are certainly worth investigating. 3/