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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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7 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I don't see Congress is at all addressing what happened today. Trumpism, Republican power ideology, and our electoral institutions brought us to this point, and there doesn't seem to be any reckoning with that (I'm mainly talking about from the GOP side).
Sure, Romney, Graham, and some others have objected to the anti-certification nefariousness, but that's not going to stop what's really threatening American democracy right now.
Saying "enough is enough" in no way repairs years of perpetuating conspiracy theories about fraud and otherwise destabilizing democracy. Republican lawmakers need to reckon with what they've created (violent, anti-democratic mobs) or it's all for naught.

Yeah, clapping for Gaetz as he defends Trump and condemns BLM protests from 7 months ago is exactly what I'm talking about here. Sadly, it's a good night for nihilism

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
6 Jan
It's early in GA, but the NYT needles are pretty good. Plus: AP Votecast has Trump's approval in GA down since Nov; polls were good in the general; and the $2k checks and Trump call could be big factors. I'm happy if I'm a Dem, but Atlanta results could tip the scales.
It is worth noting that the average shift since November in counties that are 100% reporting (per the NYT) is about two percentage points toward Democrats. I'm not expecting Ossoff/Warnock to win by _that_ much, but directionally this is often a good indicator.
I am only here for the runoff fam
Read 21 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
11 Dec 20
not an easy day to focus on book writing. is this how political scientists have felt for the last 4 years?
Not only is the statistical analysis that Paxton relies on incomprehensibly misspecified, but the author actually explains *why* it's wrong (later votes came from cities, competitive battleground metros are less latino) IN THE CONCLUSION OF HIS STATEMENTS

supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/2…
another reminder not to let economists near voting data
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
11 Nov 20
Our latest YouGov/The Economist poll has a host of troubling findings about public confidence in the election.

Most shocking is that 86% of Trump voters say that Biden "did not legitimately win the election." 73% say that we'll "never know the real outcome of this election."
We also see the usual patterns in attitudes about mail-in voting and fraud. 88% of Trump voters say they believe that "illegal immigrants voted fraudulently in 2016 and tried again in 2020," for ex, and 90% believed that "mail ballots are being manipulated to favor Joe Biden."
Republicans are also exhibiting some... concerning... attitudes about the franchise, with 46% saying that "some people are not smart enough to vote" (27% among Dems) and 43% saying that people should have to pass a test before voting (15% for Dems).
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
10 Nov 20
This map shows you which parts of the country swung to the left or to the right v 2016. Georgia and sub/urban Texas really stand out to me:

economist.com/graphic-detail… Image
Ohio and Iowa are also notable for their shift to the right, which is doubly striking since the polls said they had swung so far to the left
(we are predicting results in counties that haven't fully reported totals yet)
Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
10 Nov 20
It is weird that so many people who rely on public polling for their jobs are instantly willing to trash the industry with damaging statements like these, instead of trying to calmly and transparently explain what went wrong and work toward better polls in the future.
Like, if part of the answer to "why aren't people taking surveys?" is "because people in the media trash them and say they are biased and aren't good for anything," then it's weird that people who know better would actively participate in the industry's demise
For posterity's sake,

(1) Here is our first cut at how the polls/models missed support for Trump, again: economist.com/united-states/…

(2) Here is what we're going to do differently next time: economist.com/united-states/…
Read 5 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
7 Nov 20
It’s way too early for headlines like this. Polls are going to end up with only slightly-above-average error once all the votes are counted. The emerging pattern of routine bias is a problem, yes, but it’s not the doomsday situation people are leading you to believe.
The biggest problem with polls TBH is that people, and lots of journalists, don’t understand how much error there can be. This is a perfectly reasonable performance for the data, yet so many in the media have already prematurely called the industry dead.
The other point is re: the “who” of the error. Based on county returns so far it looks like polls actually performed just fine in the suburbs, but underestimated support for Trump among non-college whites and maybe Hispanics. Nothing about revolt against D culture looks true.
Read 5 tweets

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