Thread by @IamMisterBond

People are going Ga Ga on Markets crossing 14000 NIFTY. My take on this:

1. Most Retail Investors had exited in March 2020 crash
2. They waited for further correction to enter - that never happened
3. Most have been only waiting on the sidelines without participating

From July 2017 to Dec 2020,

NIFTY 50 posted + 11.50%
NIFTY Midcap has just managed to break even and come into +4% plus &
NIFTY Small Cap still not recovered full loss ( -1.50% )

Which just goes to show that those under Buy & Hold are only recouping their losses and have not managed to participate fully in post March 2020 rally.

Those who adopted Buy & Hold: many fell by the wayside in March 2020. Those lucky to have stayed put have barely managed to break even or still in negative in Mid & Small Caps which have had raging rally since March 2020

We may be back to Jan to Mar scenario with stretched valuations, 2nd lock downs announced around the world. There can be flight to liquidity soon with funds moving out once again from EM. FIIs will pull out, book profits and Domestic Investors will suffer one more jolt

Only strategies which have used REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY of exiting when markets were expensive and reinvested when Markets became cheap have done well

I hope Investors and MFDs take note of this and start applying common sense & logic and not get carried away with this liquidity driven rally.

Please Introspect on market performance from Jul 2017 to Jan 2020 to Mar 2020 to Dec 2020 & then decide which strategy to adopt

Adopt Downside Protection and be in the Right Asset Class at Right Valuations