Some hits & misses in the Budget presented by @nsitharaman :
Hits:
1. Sticking to Fiscal consolidation path, this year 4.9% of GDP going down to 4.5% next FY
2. Youth employment, skill development, internship program - to benefit 1 cr youth
3. Infra spend of 11.11 lac cr by Govt 4. Economy to grow at 6.5 to 7% - highest among global economies
5. Direct & indirect taxes collection buoyancy to continue

Misses:

1. No steps to boost slowing consumption
2. Personal tax slab tinkering to give only 17.5k in hands of tax payers

How do you choose a scheme to start your #SIP?

Last 1/3/5 year #PointToPoint (P2P) returns? There is a study which shows that top performing scheme over any 3 years actually becomes bottom performing scheme over next 3 years and vice versa

Why does one #save & #invest? If you understand answers to this question, you will look at your #InvestmentJourney in a totally different light.

A thread: You #earn through primary sources of #income like #salary & #BusinessIncome.

You have many #goals in your life like #education, #marriage, #retirement etc for which you start saving & investing

MisterBond's #RollOfHonour for various #Debt scheme categories for the year ending on March 31'2023.

#IHR - Investor High Returns Score - Higher Returns in Higher Bands
#IER - Investor Experience Returns Score - IHR divided by Std Deviation
#BI - Beating Industry Average MisterBond's Roll of Honour - #BankingAndPSUFund:

MisterBond's #RollOfHonour for various Equity scheme categories for the year ending on March 31'2023.

#IHR - Investor High Returns Score - Higher Returns in Higher Bands
#IER - Investor Experience Returns Score - IHR divided by Stabd Deviation
#BI - Beating Industry Average MisterBond's Roll of Honour in #ELSS schemes

Amendment to the Finance Bill 2023 - The #FinanceMinister has made all #DebtMutual fund investments ,after 01.04.2023 taxable as #ShortTermCapitalGains.

No #LTCG on DebtSchemes.

DebtSchemes will now be at par with #BankDeposits on taxation

bit.ly/3LIC96w Hybrid category will start becoming popular with more than 36% in Equity.

Expect more such offerings from #AMCs. Brace for more #volatility in New offerings.

Another NFO - at an opportune time:

New Fund Offer (NFO) of Motilal Oswal Nifty G-sec May 2029 Index Fund. The NFO opens and closes on 02nd March 2023

Why should you invest in Motilal Oswal Nifty G-sec May 2029 Index fund? It is a 6 year open ended #DebtScheme - comparable time frame to most popular investment alternative viz. 5 year #BankFD

With likely capture of Gross YTM of 7.40% - again comparable to current rates of 5 year FDs or even better

#Budget2023WishList:
For #MutualFund Industry:
@nsitharaman
1. Removal of #GST for commissions paid to #MutualFundDistributors who cannot recover the same from their investors. Only industry where this happens

We need more #MFDs to achieve goal of reaching Rs.100 lac crs in AUM Removal of #LTCG from #Equity and #EquityMFSchemes. Will have very low impact on fiscal collections.

But it will improve sentiments and move funds from non-productive assets like #Gold to #FinancialAssets like equity.

MisterBond's #RollofHonour in #Debt schemes as on January 2023 (based on past 12 monthly ranking analysis)

Only difference instead of last 7 year data (in Equity), we collate data over 5 year period and do daily 36 month (vs 60 month in Equity) #RollingReturns analysis: #BankingandPSU

MISTERBOND'S #ROLLofHONOUR IN DIFFERENT #MUTUALFUND SCHEME CATEGORIES BASED ON PAST 12 MONTHLY RANKING DATA FROM JAN 22 TO DEC 22 AND AVERAGE OF THE SAME - In JAN 2023:

Entirely #Quantitative analysis: #ELSS

Announcing MISTERBOND'S ROLL OF HONOUR for Mutual Fund schemes under all categories of #Debt, #Hybrid and #Equity.

This will showcase Top 5 schemes in each category.

This should become the #GOLD standard in ranking Mutual Fund schemes on #QuantitativeAnalysis This will be based on monthly analysis of daily rolling returns in each category and then
12 month average of such monthly analysis

#BullWhip effect as per @michaeljburry:

All know that rising #inflation is negative for #Equity markets as #CentralBanks (CB) tend to raise rates to control #demand - which in turn can lead to #Recession. During this phase #demand outpaces #supply.

@PensionCraft Demand contracts for some time and supply also contracts with a lag. Post that demand starts to rise (post COVID), prompting manufacturers to increase supply disproportionately - creating a supply glut. This puts downward pressure on prices,inflation comes down. CBs turn dovish

What factors to look for to understand which direction are #interestrates headed:

1. Total Credit in the system
2. Which gets divided into External and Internal
3. External focuses on #CAD
4. Internal: Private & Govt
5. Private - #CreditOfftake
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit 3. External :
#CAD (Current Account Deficit - difference between country's #Imports & #Exports) goes up, #imports become expensive, rupee depreciates, bringing in imported #inflation

- interest rate tend to go up

Why one needs to protect downside - a thread:

Basics:

If NIFTY goes down from 18,000 to 9,000 it is 50% drop.

Now it needs to go up 100% from thereon to break even and come back to 18,000 and then get into positive territory Current situation:

Markets have dropped by almost 12% from the peak reached on 18th Oct 2021.

#nifty50 will have to go up by 13.63% and scale back to 18500 from hereon to break even and then get into positive territory.

That is almost 2200 points rise from hereon

TIME TO ENTER & NOT EXIT FROM EQUITY at this juncture

After yesterday's correction, NIFTY PE & PB have gone down for our Algo to show one can invest 60% in Equity. In such a scenario, we would recommend out of ₹100, ₹60 can now be invested in Equity and balance 40% in Liquid. We then do value STP of 3X over next few months till markets remain in Yellow Zone. If markets collapse to Green Zone, balance amount in liquid can be deployed in Equity immediately.

What is 3X?

60 lacs/60 mths = 1 lac is 1X
3X in this case is 3 lacs

#AMCs are manufacturers and will offer a basket to select from. Would anyone have invested if they came with NFO in March 2020?

It is duty of #Advisors/#Investors to invest or ignore. Just because AMCs offer is no criteria to invest.

Need to introspect before blaming others

https://twitter.com/sidd1307/status/1524600061836939271

Same is the case with IPOs, their timings and their valuations. Companies also come with #IPOs when markets were on a roll.

Again, investors had a choice to invest or ignore.

They invested with GREED and FOMO and now blaming others for these IPOs bombing

Many have asked me to create a thread on why to invest in Debt when interest rates go up post RBI raising rates. A thread on the same

https://twitter.com/IamMisterBond/status/1514149145749037062

When interest rates go up, price of underlying securities come down and vice versa. There is inverse correlation to interest rates and price of bonds

Lot of #AMCs come up with different ideas, themes, sectors.

These are demands from #Investors as they have done well in recent past.

AMCs are manufacturers & will offer what is in demand.

Final choice to say YES or NO lies entirely with Investors based on their #NEEDs What should investors choose and what should they ignore. A point by point guide on where and why to invest in certain #themes, #MarketCap bias, #Sectors, #AssetClasses etc.

What should be criteria for these selections and what should guide them to resist from Investing?

From Jan 2018 to peak of #EquityMarkets on 18th Oct 2021, #SmartInvesting of @IamMisterBond underperformed #BuyAndHold only against #NIFTY50 but beat NIFTY Mid and Small Cap 100 by a big margin.

Post that, markets have been #volatile with downward bias Results of Smart Investing v/s Buy & Hold under all Market Caps is for all to see - with 1) lower volatility, 2) beating results of Buy & Hold by big margins

#SmartInvesting switched to Equity in Mar 20 after downside protection and switched back to DAAF by Jul 20

#Budget2022 wish list:

Congratulations to @nsitharaman and @PMOIndia to guide our country thru this #pandemic period. You have avoided excesses of many countries during this period. Thanks to that #India is touted as the next preferred #investment destination. It is dream of our Hon #PMModi to reach $5 trln economy very soon. For that, besides Govt spending, you will need help from citizens to save, invest and channel the same to productive use through investment vehicles like Mutual Funds.

We have been told following:
1. Time in market more important than timing the market
2. Long Term is 5 yrs plus

Chart will prove the above wrong. First, timing the market is more important then time in the market

Entry as important as Exit points. There are many such examples Investing at right Valuations is of paramount importance

Cannot buy at any levels and expect good returns going forward

If bought at expensive valuations-long term may change from 5 to 7 to 10 years

From 01-01-08 to 01-01-21 - 14 years NIFTY - 7.63% p.a. -sub optimal returns