THREAD: Johan Rockström's Performance lecture at the Swedish National Theatre (in Swedish, English Subtitles) and what it tells activists and Scientists alike. Watch it now or read my review 1/n svtplay.se/video/29406900…
In the performance, Johan Rockström sits at the bottom of the bed of a young family and explains our climate predicament. In words, no graphs. The young mother listens and gets engaged in a dialogue with him. There is a lot to like about the performance ... 2/n
Dramatic to see two worlds collide - one who has been studying the workings of the planet for 20 years and the other who has been concentrating on her acting career and having a child. (The husband is too tired to listen "I've got a rehearsal in the morning let me sleep) ..3/n
Many will recognise themselves in this: the scene Rockström paints is beyond scary. Met with "eh what?" by the young mother. We can't take in new knowledge if we have nothing to hang it onto. She asks him to explain it to her as if she were a three-year old ...4/n
He has difficulty NOT talking like a scientist. Tries to explain tipping points with cups and a marble. Finally, the mother understands it is a bit like Russian Roulette. Yes! We have to take the bullet out of the chamber says Rockström. But wait..5/n
"How many bullets are in the chamber now?" She asks, it looks like you are telling me the chamber is full. "It is", says Rockström. "But if we stop fossil fuel burning we can have 95% chance of NOT making the planet uninhabitable" 6/n
He laughs at the irony of the situation, but she gets angry that he takes it so lightly. "So it is hopeless," she says. "Scientifically speaking" he replies "there are solutions to it all. We can all actually live better." 7/n
"What can I do I am just a struggling actress?" Rockström gives two avenues. 1) learn about it and push for political change 2) Change life-style. Now to my reflections 8/n
I love how the play demonstrates the difficulty of "we" who have science as a background, have been talking since the 70s about this stuff to a whole other world who can't seem to take it in. What is more, 9/n
We are comfortable talking like scientists but explaining it like an adult is way out of our area and to children.... how do you explain it without scaring kids. I can just hear @GretaThunberg and @ExtinctionR saying "Just tell the truth I am not stupid" 10/n
We ( I put on my ex science teacher hat) have shied away from communicating in a normative way. (i.e. If you want to keep X then you need to do Y) because we are afraid that talking about values (you want) is beyond our remit. The play shows how the opposite is true. 11/n
It is incumbent on all who see it to call it. And we have to make an effort, with cups and marbles and analogies. And specifically with science based targets connected to values. We can use "if" to keep our rational stance. And I have to admit... 12/n
I don't have the skill to formulate these targets as they have to be hard. And they have to be pivotal. We are not talking about shaving off a few percent a year. We are talking about capping and drawing down. And we have to offer something better. It IS difficult 13/n
It is hard enough to explain the predicament. To give hard targets without sounding like a environmental fascist or communist dictator is harder still. Indeed a friend of mine saw the performance on TV and phoned complaining Rockström is scaring people. Seriously 14/n
What the TV performance shows us is
We don't know how to do this stuff. How to explain the problem, and give hard targets. We know how to present solutions that if only someone could make money on them would be introduced...
In fact, we so badly cannot do this stuff that 15/n
The ONLY solution to handling this predicament is to hand it over to the people. Citizens assemblies, referendum, crisis handling, and to create new government departments. The present order is not going to hack it. We as humanity, we as scientists, we as good citizens 16/n
Chasing the good job is just not going to do it. We as a collective need to formulate then chase hard targets together and we need to chase a better life for each other at the same time 17/17
TRÅD: Sorgligt det inte tas upp hur tobak är negativt för miljö och hälsa - även i snusform. Lyssna inte på Swedish Match VD som får uttala sig i DN utan kritiska följdfrågor. forts.... DN.SEdn.se/ekonomi/swedis…
Snus är ingen hälsoprodukt. Det är mindre farligt att snusa än att röka, men snusare har bland annat högre risk att dö om de drabbas av hjärtinfarkt och stroke, och nikotin ger styvare blodkärl, vilket ökar risken för hjärt-kärlsjukdomar. forts...
På sin hemsida skriver Swedish Match att de arbetar för att eliminera barnarbete i tobaksplantagerna. Att de är medlemmar i ECLT Foundation är greenwashing, enligt Tobacco Control Research Group vid Bath University som forskar på tobaksindustrin. Forts...
TAIL RISK THREAD: A tail risk is one that is small but devastating. When an 8 year- old asks about crossing the road to get to a bus stop you correctly point out that there is a 1% risk she will get run over. However you might want to suggest instead 1/x
A 3-min walk to the traffic lights and crossing. To frame tail risk you include probability distribution of the event (car colliding with girl), with an outcome function (girl likely dies if hit), and account for the cost of mitigation (3 minutes to walk to traffic light) 2/x
In the realm of climate change, climate scientists are the ones charged with estimating the event risk, while other disciplines (e.g. economics, engineering) must be brought to bear on estimating outcome, and the costs of mitigating the risk or adapting to it. 3/x
THREAD: Understanding pivot. Growing pressure from world population life-style will reach a point where it is damaging the capacity of Earth systems to an extent where life support will be challenged. It is simply a question of at what stage governments act. 1/X
Pivot is the same at each point 1-4. I use the STOP acronym. a) Stop, or halt, all increase of extraction/drawdown. b) Think, plan measures that will restore Earth system capacity and keep delivering basic services. c) Organise, re-work old regulations and agencies and then 2/x
Proceed to act. Notice that pivots are different depending on where measures are set in. It is MUCH harder to change when carrying capacity is challenged to an extent where people are dying. However, the pivot idea is a useful decision framework as you will see in 3/x
Thread: A pivot is a sudden change in direction to another direction. The diagram explains why we need to pivot now: the sum aggregate of business activities is extracting more from and putting more into natural systems than the systems can handle. The consequence? Contd...
Natural systems unable to support the number of human population and there will be a massive die-off. This phenomenon is well-known by biologists. Populations rise and crash all the time. Populations CAN exceed carrying capacity a short time - but a crash always results. contd
We have no choice now, having entered the danger zone, but to prepare for the crash. This requires us to voluntarily pivot. Declare the emergency for what it is and get on with it.
Thread on pivoting: to avoid worse crises our way of life has to pivot. That is to say, STOP. Stop going in current direction. THINK through the new direction. ORGANISE so we are ready then PIVOT.>>>
Utopia you might say on Pivot. We cannot agree. We have I say. The broad direction and even speed of that change is embedded in the Sustainable Development Goals. How then to apply SDG goals to plan pivots? Well, >>>
Presented in this form, the bottom layer of SDGs show what to pivot away from - ceilings. The social layer shows the floors to keep above and the top layer shows the economic operating space for the production system with peace as our aim. Let's look at the math>>>
Thread: Science Based targets like Global Carbon Budget, Planetary boundaries, SDGs, are a good start. They set up a common boundary, but a common boundary is not a commons. so ... globalcommonsalliance.org/alliance-proje…
Current rules of the game that allow people with money to use that to buy property and use that property without any limits being set on that use - to the extent that the use of said property blows away all common-agreed limits contd:
The last 30 years how fossil fuel CO2 emissions have risen DESPITE a common agreement to limit warming. This shows how little political power there really is - trumped by the power of money. Capital as Power, Jonathan Nitzan & Shimshon Bichler shows this economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/08/26/fre…