Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/10 - USA. Jan 08 to Jan 14-
The #COVID19 situation is getting worse with new rebounds or plateau in activity, and very high levels of mortality.
9 states detailed and analysis in:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

5,92 m vaccinated by Jan 07.

2/10 - Massachusetts will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), at high levels, with increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/10 - Vermont will experience a surge again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.27), at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/10 - New York will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.13), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/10 - Pennsylvania will be plateauing at high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.99), with alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/10 - Florida will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

7/10 - Texas will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

8/10 - South Dakota has stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.0), at high levels of activity, with decreasing very high to high (by next mid-week) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

9/10 - California will be plateauing at very high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02) at high levels, with increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

10/10 - Washington: due to irregular data transmission the #COVID19 epidemiological situation is difficult to ascertain with precision and previsions may not be accurate.

11/10 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06 and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

12/10 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0