2/10 - Massachusetts will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), at high levels, with increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/10 - Vermont will experience a surge again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.27), at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
4/10 - New York will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.13), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
5/10 - Pennsylvania will be plateauing at high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.99), with alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
6/10 - Florida will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
7/10 - Texas will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
8/10 - South Dakota has stopped its descent towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=1.0), at high levels of activity, with decreasing very high to high (by next mid-week) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
9/10 - California will be plateauing at very high levels of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02) at high levels, with increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
10/10 - Washington: due to irregular data transmission the #COVID19 epidemiological situation is difficult to ascertain with precision and previsions may not be accurate.
11/10 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following @KristenN_06 and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop 4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
12/10 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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1/5 -La France aurait l’occasion et les moyens de développer une ambition “contagieuse” pour le reste de l’Europe vis-à-vis de la stratégie vaccinale. Voici une proposition en complément de la doctrine actuelle du pays.
2/5 - La France sait faire voter 38 des 54 millions de ses citoyens de plus de 18 ans, en 10 heures, sur une seule journée. Elle peut organiser dans chaque commune, sous l’impulsion de ses 36000 maires un dispositif semblable pour vacciner tous les adultes volontaires.
3/5 - Mais il faut pour cela savoir produire un vaccin pour près de 2x54 millions de doses. Cela demanderait 4 à 5 mois à un laboratoire qui a le savoir faire - comme Sanofi-Pasteur - qui devrait alors disposer d’un accès facilité à l’un des vaccins approuvés. Disons juin 2021.
2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.79), at high to medium (by next mid-week) levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
112,427 vaccinated as of Jan 08.
3/21 - Belgium is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), at medium levels of activity, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
700 vaccinated as of Jan 02.
1/7 - “The EU has hit back at criticism from member states that its bloc-wide vaccine procurement plan has failed to secure enough doses to enable a rapid start. [...] EC had been overly cautious in reaching agreements with vaccine manufact. last year”. ft.com/content/c1575e…
2/7 - “The EU official’s intervention came as a blame game escalated over the slow pace of the vaccine rollout in many European countries. While Britain has vaccinated more than 1m people, as of Tuesday, Germany, Spain and France had vaccinated 367,00, 139,000 and 5,000 people.”
3/7 - “The EU, with a population of almost 450m, has assembled a portfolio totalling more than 2bn doses of seven different vaccines. But investments by the EU to help companies cover upfront costs appear to have been relatively modest compared with those agreed by the US.”
2/21 - Belgium is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), at medium levels of activity, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
700 vaccinated as of Jan 02.
3/21. Germany is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at high levels, with remaining very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
417,060 vaccinated as of Jan 06.
1/5 - Canada – Jan 08 to Jan 14 –
The country will experience an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with very high levels of mortality.
4 Prov. in the thread.
Forecast for 13 Prov/Territ on: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Quebec does not seem to succeed to take over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/5 - Ontario will see an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.09), at high levels, with increasing high to very high (by next mid-week) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
1/10 - “Last month, Israel began the world’s speediest coronavirus vaccination campaign, handing out first jabs of a two-shot BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine to more than 1m citizens. Millions more are planned.” ft.com/content/0e2f59…
2/10 - “Next door, in the West Bank, occupied by the Israeli military, and in Gaza, blockaded by the same forces, millions of Palestinians waited for their turn. They are still waiting.”
3/10 - “The stark disparity is not just an illustration of the inequities that await the global rollout of #COVID19 vaccines, with wealthy nations racing ahead of poorer ones to immunise their citizens.”