Thread by @AdamJRuby

Weekly update on the #COVID19 situation in Liverpool: 8th Jan 2021

- Weekly cases now surpass 2nd wave's highest weekly number.
- Steep rise in both under & over 60's age groups.
- COVID patients in the Royal now on the up.

😕

1/18

Total weekly cases increased at a speed never seen during the 2nd wave, growing > 3x that of previous week.

Many reasons for this. Personal opinion; Christmas mixing probably dominating the rise, egged on by already recent increase in prevalence + new variant. 2/18

Scary rates are seen for both under and over 60 age groups. Slightly higher in < 60's but more in sync than seen during the student dominate start of the 2nd wave.

> 60's curve is bad because this group are more at risk of severe disease & hospitalisation 3/18

COVID Hospital admissions into the Liverpool Royal hospital are continuing to increase. The steeper the gradient the faster beds will fill. Admission levels are now over half that of the 2nd wave maximum and, based on over 60's case rate in previous tweet, no sign slowing.

4/18

Liverpool suffered a very bad 2nd wave with a fifth more people dying than expected in a normal year, driven by COVID-19 deaths

Week ending 25/12 there were 8 reported hospital deaths. No reported care home deaths. Based on admissions this will unfortunately increase soon. 5/18

Since 6th Nov, Liverpool have rolled out rapid asymptomatic lateral flow (LF) testing as well as symptomatic PCR tests

In the week 30/12 - 05/01 there have been 4,450 cases. Including 997 individuals (22.4%) identified by asymptomatic LF testing.

liverpool.gov.uk/communities-an…
6/18

A heat-map of the weekly breakdown of Liverpool cases by ward can be found below:

7/18

https://twitter.com/AdamJRuby/status/1347313095434186753?s=20

Below is a summary of rolling weekly testing numbers and corresponding positivity for LF & PCR, since the community testing began.

Both testing positivities increased rapidly recently to 2.6% and 20% for LF & PCR respectively. 8/18

If we zoom out, weekly symptomatic PCR positivity has now surpassed the highest point in the second wave. And no sign of slowing just yet.

Cases turn into hospitalisations, which can turn into deaths. These current levels look very bad 😕 9/18

Case proportions with new more transmissible variant has increased in all regions of England, including the North West

I've not found more granular data for Merseyside but it is not far fetched to assume the new variant could be causing some significant problems here. 10/18

ONS today reported through their infection survey that an estimated 2.12% (CI 1.39-3.32) would test positive in the Liverpool & surrounding area for week 28 Dec - 2 Jan

Data: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

11/18

According to Apple routing data, Liverpool's recent driving levels (red) have dropped -40% compared to mid-Jan 2020, both due to Christmas weekend and the following restrictions. But are still above England average.

Public transport use also dropped. 12/18

Zooming out, one can see that current levels in Liverpool are still relatively 20% greater now than seen during the first national lockdown, according to this metric. 13/18

Previous update thread:

14/18

https://twitter.com/AdamJRuby/status/1345114934682779650?s=20

Sources

Case/Hospital data:
GOV ( coronavirus.data.gov.uk )
Liverpool city council: liverpool.gov.uk/communities-an…

Deaths data: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

Apple mobility trends: covid19.apple.com/mobility

15/18

Caveats:
- Hospital data released every Thursday (up to 1st Jan)
- Only for Royal Liverpool Hospital (other Liv hosps small numbers)
- Five year Avg deaths scaled from national proportion (ONS definition)

16/18

Summary (I):

These plots are very alarming, given what was seen during the 2nd wave and what is happening right now

I believe a mixture of Christmas mixing, egged on by already increasing prevalence + higher levels of more transmissible variant has caused the sudden spike 17/18

Summary (II):

Saying this, the current restrictions and faster roll-out of vaccination is needed as much as ever to buy us time & save lives.

Once we're over this wave I hope to never tweet another thread like this again, but will continue until then. Safe. 18/18