PHE has released the underlying data behind the B.1.1.7 technical report, allowing us to see the spread of the new variant in more detail
Data and reports: gov.uk/government/pub…
B.1.1.7 in London
To be clear, these graphs show the proportion of cases that are due to B.1.1.7 in each area, as a value between 0% to 100%. (B.1.1.7 being assessed with the S-dropout proxy that is now highly predictive).
R notebook to generate these: theosanderson.github.io/adhoc_covid/sg…
Higher quality video incl. download link:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Theo Sanderson

Theo Sanderson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @theosanderson

9 Jan
1/ Some people are looking at this map and saying: "it must have come from Europe". Here are a few reasons why that is unlikely.
2/ Though B.1.1.7 was especially prominent in Kent, the 2nd sequence ever sequenced was found in London, a day after the 1st. Due to superspreading it isn't possible to pinpoint for sure whether it originated in Kent or London. (If London, there's no argument for the continent).
3/ And suppose we did believe the new variant was introduced from abroad. Would we expect it to be introduced by sea or air? Far more arrivals to the UK in August/September occurred by air compared to sea.
Read 9 tweets
7 Jan
Completely understand why people are peeved, esp. given GISAID policy. But eventually we should build a system with best of both worlds
- labs rewarded for making data publicly available quickly
- this data freely analysed by anyone, and those analyses communicated (=published)
The failure to do the first of these is a major limiting factor at the moment, funders..
Read 4 tweets
7 Jan
Monoclonal antibodies targeting the IL6 receptor reduce mortality by 25% for ICU patients, on top of dexamethasone benefits.

bbc.co.uk/news/health-55…
I think for 800 patients that's a 95% confidence interval of around 8%-40% reduction. As ever hope to see a preprint out ASAP.
Also reported to reduce ICU stay by 7-10 days which would be a massive boon in current situation. gov.uk/government/new…
Read 4 tweets
30 Dec 20
1/ The MHRA has approved a longer gap between doses for both the AstraZeneca vaccine and the Pfizer vaccine. The latter has concerned some people. Specifically many are citing a figure of 52% for protection after the first dose.

Here is why this 52% figure isn't useful [1/n] Image
2/ The 52% value is a real figure, which comes from the Pfizer trial, for the period between the first and second doses. Here is what that period of time looked like (fda.gov/media/144325/d…):

In red are people who received placebo and in blue are those who received the vaccine Image
3/ We can see that until day 3 we have near identical results in both groups. This is *expected* - no vaccine has an effect until days later when the immune system has had time to develop a response against it.
Read 11 tweets
29 Dec 20
Had fun™ trying to extract S-dropout rates from the graph in the PHE report using an automated eyedropper. Take the values with a big pinch of salt!

theosanderson.github.io/adhoc_covid/ph…
CSV output with the source: github.com/theosanderson/…
And we can then compare this to the rate of growth in case figures week-on-week. (N.B. the already published analysis from PHE and others does this in much better more sophisticated ways, it's just interesting to explore)
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec 20
1/ New PHE technical report on B.1.1.7 variant assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
2/ S dropout now appears a very good indication of B.1.1.7 in all regions.
3/ Roughly a third of swab tests are carried out with the TaqPath assay that serendipitously allows this S dropout detection of B.1.1.7.
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!