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Aaron Derfel

9 Jan, 11 tweets, 4 min read

1) A Quebec public health advisor suggested Friday installing portable air purifiers in schools might produce the opposite effect, inadvertently causing the #coronavirus to spread in the air among students. In this thread, I will fact-check this assertion by Dr. Richard Massé.

2) This is what Dr. Massé had to say on the subject: “The committee also found that if they’re not installed properly they can create air movement that promotes the transmission of aerosols.” Upon what scientific basis did the committee reach this decision?

3) The answer to that question can be found in the scientific references listed in the back of the study by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec. The INSPQ cited a South Korean study which warns the “installation of air purifiers may cause new problems.”

4) “When a (person) coughs or releases droplets near a colleague’s respiratory system, the droplets may spread throughout..via air flow from the air purifier,” the study concludes. However, that study did not focus on schools, but rather busy call centres in South Korea.

5) The study wasn't retrospective. It did not measure #COVID19 contagion among workers 𝙖𝙛𝙩𝙚𝙧 the portable air purifiers were installed in the call centres. Rather, the study conducted a pilot experiment 𝙗𝙚𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙚 installation of the purifiers on what could possibly occur.

6) The INSPQ study does allude to a ventilation guide by Harvard University’s School of Public Health. But it does not mention that those same Harvard experts strongly recommend portable HEPA air filtration in classrooms without proper ventilation.

7) At Friday’s news conference, rather than discuss the merits of portable air filtration based on the science, it appears an attempt was made to sow the seeds of doubt about a proven technology for poorly ventilated classrooms.

8) Thus, it’s in this context of an absence of portable air purifiers — but with some classroom windows open in the freezing cold of winter — that pupils will return to elementary schools. The last time these students returned to class in the fall, #COVID19 cases soon followed.

9) Meanwhile, the #pandemic set more records in the second wave in Quebec on Friday, with 1,403 #COVID19 hospitalizations and 207 intensive-care stays. The situation is so dire that the ICUs of Montreal’s two pediatric hospitals are to be used for adult patients.

10) The seven-day rolling average in Montreal remained alarmingly high, at 44.94 #COVID19 cases per 100,000 residents. That’s nearly 20 points higher than the threshold to impose stay-at-home orders by Harvard. Yet students will return to class Monday.

11) More context: Since the start of 2021, 51 people have died from #COVID19 in Paris, which has a population that’s slightly higher than Montreal’s. Since Jan. 1, Montreal has reported nearly double the number as the French capital: 96. End of thread. Stay safe, everyone.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

8 Jan

1) In the past two days, #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace have jumped by 70 across Quebec, raising questions about the government’s decision to spare the manufacturing industry from its latest lockdown announcement. In this thread, I will re-examine the government's decision.

2) On Nov. 21, the government reported a total of 64 outbreaks in manufacturing, 53 in stores and 26 in construction. In the last update on workplace outbreaks on Dec. 23, the government disclosed that #COVID19 clusters in manufacturing nearly tripled to 187.

3) Outbreaks in stores nearly tripled, too, with a total of 151, according to the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ). And #COVID19 clusters in construction nearly doubled to 60. Yet the Premier has exempted manufacturing and construction from the new lockdown.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

7 Jan

1) Since last week, the #COVID19 positivity rate in the Montreal borough of Saint-Léonard has jumped to 20.9% (!) from 18.1%, underscoring how the #coronavirus is running rampant in the city. Will the four-week curfew announced Wednesday succeed in breaking this second wave?

2) Before answering that question, it’s worth focusing on the rising #COVID19 hospitalizations in Montreal and across the province. At the McGill University Health Centre (see the chart below), the number of such hospitalizations has been surging in an almost vertical line.

3) Quebec-wide, intensive-care stays due to #COVID19 are fast approaching the peak of the first wave, with a total of 202 disclosed on Wednesday. (The record stands at 222 on May 6). This is in addition to all the other non-COVID patients who are in ICUs. See the chart below.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

6 Jan

1) On the eve of Quebec’s announcement of a total lockdown for at least three weeks, the province posted a staggering single-day increase of 31 #COVID19 outbreaks in health-care institutions. In this thread, I will focus on what the lockdown will mean for these facilities.

2) In the short-term at least, it’s doubtful the lockdown will ease the tremendous pressure that hospitals and long-term care centres are under, with #COVID19 outbreaks flaring up, workers getting sick and hospitalizations rising.

3) In the first wave, Premier François Legault announced a lockdown on March 13, and waited nearly three months to declare the lifting of restrictions in Montreal. The big question is whether a lockdown of three to four weeks will be sufficient this time around.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

3 Jan

1) On Dec. 10, Montreal crossed the threshold by Harvard University experts for stay-at-home orders. But Quebec waited until Dec. 17 to send schoolchildren home. On Dec. 25, it shut businesses. The city posted 648 #COVID19 cases Dec. 10. By Sunday, it was more than double: 1,300.

2) The latest figures show #COVID19 is now surging far faster in Montreal than any other region in the province. The metropolis’s seven-day rolling average rose to 43.88 cases per 100,000 residents Sunday, well above Harvard’s 25-case threshold.

3) Provincially, Quebec set a record 2,869 #COVID19 cases Sunday, as well as a record 1,225 hospitalizations. Of that number, a record 179 patients were being treated in rapidly crowding intensive-care units across the province.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

2 Jan

1) With #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations soaring in Montreal and across the province, public health experts are beginning to openly question the Legault government’s semi-lockdown plan over the holidays. In this thread, I will examine the continuing problems with that plan.

2) What worries epidemiologist Benoît Mâsse is that cases have ratcheted up despite the fact that schools closed on Dec. 17. “I sincerely expected to see a reduction in new infections around Dec. 28 or 29,” Mâsse told Presse Canadienne.

3) Yet from Dec. 27 to Dec. 30, Quebec posted four days of rising #COVID19 cases, culminating in a record 2,819 on Dec. 30. The number of intensive-care stays climbed to 165 amid 1,175 hospitalizations and a growing number of infected health workers.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

2 Jan

1) Intensive-care units and emergency rooms in Montreal are beginning to fill up with a combination of #COVID19 patients and those with other medical problems, front-line workers told me on New Year's Day. In this short thread, I will explain this serious and growing problem.

2) “It is getting more challenging to find beds, that is for sure,” a veteran ER physician told me. “But I have yet to have a patient stuck so far. It is coming, though.” During the first wave, some overcrowded Montreal hospitals sent some #COVID19 patients to regional centres.

3) But in this second wave, those regional hospitals are full of their own #COVID19 patients. With cases and hospitalizations still rising and absenteeism increasing among health-care workers (because they’re getting sick), the acute-care system is now at the breaking point.

Read 8 tweets

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