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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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10 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Assuming a reversion to the GOP in the 2022 midterms just because Democrats hold a trifecta ignores
- increasing polarization and an increasingly inelastic electorate
- a favorable D Senate map
- a bad COVID recovery

You're as likely to see a 2002 midterm as you are a 2010 one.
It also ignores educational polarization, which has been the bread and butter of the change sustaining the Democratic Party's competitiveness in off-year cycles and elections. Suburbs are overrepresented in midterms, rurals in presidential years (of late).
What Nate Cohn taught us when our model was failing to capture the strength of Ossoff's early lead initially before the rebuild was that geographic correlation was a proxy of the shift in individual voting likelihood.

Even in small towns, voters with college degrees vote more.
a bad COVID GOP recovery up till now, that is.

Things are so rock bottom right now that it's literally teed up for Biden to take it forward. He literally has to try to not fuck it up from here.

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More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
9 Jan
Knowing some of the inside workings of both campaigns, IMO it was Ossoff. A lot of the coordination, structure, and planning was provided by Ossoff's campaign, especially in the general election. And I'm almost certain Warnock doesn't hold Perdue under 50% in November.
Absolutely none of this is to say Warnock was not a good candidate, so I'm not claiming that at all.

But how do we define candidate quality? Is it based on coordination, hires, and strategy? Or on some nebulous "I like this person better"? If the former, Ossoff pips Warnock.
There's no question Warnock turned out Black voters like nobody's business, and Ossoff needed that.

But Warnock's campaign was lagging badly in August and he was once in danger of missing the runoff entirely.

Meanwhile, Ossoff had the best statewide digital strategy around.
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
8 Jan
I have got to emphasize this again:

I’ve studied the early voting data in a lot of detail and talked to several people in the know on this, and in my opinion, Democrats ran a near-perfect campaign that could be studied for years to come.

It was absolutely incredible.
Black turnout staying super high: ✅
Avoid any type of suburban slippage: ✅
Turn out and contact every single voter: ✅
Let the GOP destroy themselves with infighting: ✅
Build the best statewide digital operation in the nation: ✅
In particular, Jon Ossoff beating David Perdue is a feat that absolutely nobody should be diminishing. Defeating an incumbent who was once relatively popular by over a percentage point in a year of downballot disappointments is nothing short of remarkable.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
8 Jan
When this is all over, half these sniveling cowards saying nothing about yesterday will go to firms and media outlets looking for jobs and speaking gigs.

No one who wants their outlet to remain credible should entertain them even for a second.
It was bad enough when they rehabilitated Sean Spicer. Now, if they’re going to legitimize McEnany, Pence, and the others, then they can all fuck off
Sorry to keep posting about this but I don’t think I’ve been this angry about anything in our government since I heard the audio of children in cages at the border. And I might be even angrier here and I didn’t think that was even possible.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
7 Jan
I think this is a bit to the other side.

Abrams really helped the registration drive in GA. We've seen in TX and FL how a lack of it hurt us. She did some amazing, amazing work.

But the key underlying reason for the flip (strong suburban swing left) was not her doing.
This does *not* diminish the incredible organizing work Abrams did one bit.

It does say, though, that if we want to win as a party, we need to understand the underlying reason behind the GA win: huge suburban swing and Black turnout
Abrams had a lot to do with increased Black turnout and should be applauded for it, and this infrastructure should be built on.

She had little to do with swings in places like Henry.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
6 Jan
Seen a lot of impeachment speculation around the TL.

My thoughts here are that there's a lot of anger floating around, and I really wouldn't be surprised one bit if "moderate" members like Kinzinger vote yes.

But now the more I think, the more I doubt it. *This* is their line?
Thought exercise: What's in it, politically, for some random House GOP member like Mike Simpson to vote yes on impeachment?

You just get a primary and another lunatic replaces you. They'll justify it by saying "if I don't stay, someone worse comes in".
"It's the right thing to do to remove!" Sure, but aside from some notable cases (Kinzinger, Fitzpatrick, and Mace are notable ones that jump to mind), why do we think any of them have a thread of integrity to stand on principle?
Read 6 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
6 Jan
I'd expect to see a lot more of this soon.
Of course, the fact that it took until this point for anything to happen is an entirely different story and a complete disgrace, but...
My take on this, if I read between the lines, if there's an impeachment vote, that means Mace will vote yes, in all likelihood.

That's really strong and specific wording.
Read 4 tweets

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