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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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6 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I'd expect to see a lot more of this soon.
Of course, the fact that it took until this point for anything to happen is an entirely different story and a complete disgrace, but...
My take on this, if I read between the lines, if there's an impeachment vote, that means Mace will vote yes, in all likelihood.

That's really strong and specific wording.
Of course, what do I know, because at this point it could just be temporary anger talking that she'd backtrack on. But this is really interesting to hear from Mace.

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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
8 Jan
I have got to emphasize this again:

I’ve studied the early voting data in a lot of detail and talked to several people in the know on this, and in my opinion, Democrats ran a near-perfect campaign that could be studied for years to come.

It was absolutely incredible.
Black turnout staying super high: ✅
Avoid any type of suburban slippage: ✅
Turn out and contact every single voter: ✅
Let the GOP destroy themselves with infighting: ✅
Build the best statewide digital operation in the nation: ✅
In particular, Jon Ossoff beating David Perdue is a feat that absolutely nobody should be diminishing. Defeating an incumbent who was once relatively popular by over a percentage point in a year of downballot disappointments is nothing short of remarkable.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
8 Jan
When this is all over, half these sniveling cowards saying nothing about yesterday will go to firms and media outlets looking for jobs and speaking gigs.

No one who wants their outlet to remain credible should entertain them even for a second.
It was bad enough when they rehabilitated Sean Spicer. Now, if they’re going to legitimize McEnany, Pence, and the others, then they can all fuck off
Sorry to keep posting about this but I don’t think I’ve been this angry about anything in our government since I heard the audio of children in cages at the border. And I might be even angrier here and I didn’t think that was even possible.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
7 Jan
I think this is a bit to the other side.

Abrams really helped the registration drive in GA. We've seen in TX and FL how a lack of it hurt us. She did some amazing, amazing work.

But the key underlying reason for the flip (strong suburban swing left) was not her doing.
This does *not* diminish the incredible organizing work Abrams did one bit.

It does say, though, that if we want to win as a party, we need to understand the underlying reason behind the GA win: huge suburban swing and Black turnout
Abrams had a lot to do with increased Black turnout and should be applauded for it, and this infrastructure should be built on.

She had little to do with swings in places like Henry.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
6 Jan
Seen a lot of impeachment speculation around the TL.

My thoughts here are that there's a lot of anger floating around, and I really wouldn't be surprised one bit if "moderate" members like Kinzinger vote yes.

But now the more I think, the more I doubt it. *This* is their line?
Thought exercise: What's in it, politically, for some random House GOP member like Mike Simpson to vote yes on impeachment?

You just get a primary and another lunatic replaces you. They'll justify it by saying "if I don't stay, someone worse comes in".
"It's the right thing to do to remove!" Sure, but aside from some notable cases (Kinzinger, Fitzpatrick, and Mace are notable ones that jump to mind), why do we think any of them have a thread of integrity to stand on principle?
Read 6 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
6 Jan
Dave's seen enough, and I think I have too.

Two months after Joe Biden carried the state, Democrats have pulled it off and appear to have won a trifecta by sweeping the double-barrel runoffs in Georgia. #GASen
Every single organizer, volunteer, campaign worker, and Democrat should be proud of what Georgia has just achieved. It's a roadmap for the rest of the South, and it's exactly how you capitalize on shifting political trends.
Jon Ossoff is 33.

Given his age and the shifting landscape of Georgia's politics, he could keep that seat blue for a long, long time.

From political punchline to savior. What a journey.
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
4 Jan
I want to acknowledge a lot of the others on this #GASen modeling ride:

@ADincgor -- the model's co-creator
@joe__gantt, who also models it and has given us the precinct adjustment for our model
@thunderousprof and @dooraven, who track early voting reporting with us
[1/]
@EconWanabe, @Eggymceggerson3 and @umichvoter99, who track the backlogs and outstanding ballots and follow the data just as closely.
@krazgreinetz, who's done a great job writing on/tracking this.
@EScrimshaw, who was the first to yell at me about why our initial model was wrong
@OpenModelProj, who have really done a standout job in improving model transparency
@DFMresearch, who's been modeling this on the side as well
@nolesfan2011 and @elium2, who have walked me through several key GA metrics and voting procedures
@JDubwub for his great graphics
Read 9 tweets

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