Thread by @akoz33

Coup and counter-coup.
@ELuttwak in his recent Wall Street journal piece argued that the attempt to seize the Capitol was not a “coup”. This seems to be mainly an argument about words, rather like arguing whether a bad paining by an amateur is “bad art” or not art all. After

https://twitter.com/akoz33/status/1347421681497751552

all, we now know that some of the invaders carried weapons and equipment intended for taking hostages, and some probably really did intend to murder the Vice President. What was in Trump’s mind, that is: “did he really think he could seize power in this way?” is impossible to

answer with certainty, as is anything about Trump’s mind, which sometimes appears to be that of a out of control toddler and sometimes seems to display premeditation and even some cunning.
However, irrespective of what Trump’s intentions were I think it is correct and prudent to

view what happened as an attempted coup, although a exceptionally incompetent one. And often once a coup like this fails, the greatest danger is that of a counter-coup.
Counter-coups, that is attempted coups that fail and thus provide the other side with an opportunity to stage

a coup of its own under the pretext of “restoring security” are quite common, although they don’t seem to have been considered by Luttwak. The most recent notable example was the attempted coup (assuming it was genuine) against Erdogan, which became the pretext for the huge

expansion of his power and suppression of most of the opposition. Such counter-coups have also taken place in South America, fir example a failed coup played a role in Chavez’s establishment of effective dictatorship. But probably the most far reaching and almost unnoticed at the

time, counter-coup took place in Japan in February 1926 in Japan (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_… )
This is his military historian Ikuhiko Hata described the outcome

Of course it’s too early to say that this is what is now taking place in the USA but such a possibility cannot be completely excluded. In Japan also after the end of the “February Incident” things seemed to have returned to normal, yet it turned out to be an illusion even

though it only became clear a decade later.