Thread by @hhesterm

Quick "what should we be upset about" state of Brexit thread because of the article by @tobyhelm theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

To start off - this actually is a zero-tariff and zero-quota deal. Which, for "normal" free trade agreements is unusually good. (Yes, wait for it)...

In every FTA only qualifying goods get these conditions. Yes. Rules of origin. This is a difficult topic and requires administration. The deal is not unusual in that regard at all.

The FTA is also not unusual in that it is bad at tackling non-tariff barriers. Many of these come from regulatory differences and partners unwilling to bind their regulatory choices will not reduce those barriers, either.

So far - as you can see - no criticism. That doesn't mean you should not criticize. I have 3 candidates for criticism. Two of them should really not be controversial.

Background here: while the deal does what FTAs do - with regard to tariffs better than most - it is entirely uncontroversial that it introduces significant barriers in the EU-UK trade relationship because the UK is now out of customs union and single market.

1) The new rules came at the very last second. With one week notice at best. During a pandemic. Over the Christmas-New Year period. Yes, business knew "there'd be change" - but not the end point. Criticism 1.

2) The government kept repeating that there'd be no non-tariff barriers and rather than saying that there'd be massive barriers they tried to get people to prepare by saying there'd be "change". And opportunities. All experts knew there'd be new barriers... Criticism 2.

While 1 and 2 should be uncontroversial, 3 is one that depends on your priorities. The government did not do poorly in negotiating an FTA in which it prioritized not binding the UK to regulatory obligations. You can criticize that priority, however.

And as a lawyer cannot do a thread without a caveat: could the FTA be improved even following the government's priorities? Yes, of course. Which, given the tight timeline, is hardly surprising.

But the point is: these changes would be rather limited - compared to the big changes implied by the fact of moving to an FTA trade relationship.

And the final caveat - some (h/t @frank_mortimer) rightly point out that I let business off easy. You are right to say that business must have known that leaving the CU and SM was coming. And the "surprise" of some large companies is surprising to say the least. BUT

let's look at things from their point of view. They knew since January that the UK would move out of the CU and SM, but they did not know whether no-deal or FTA. AND they are dealing with the challenges of the pandemic, for some threatening their existence right here and now.

Do you prepare for preferential rules of origin? These only become relevant if a deal is reached, and you don't know what they look like. I am sure more could have done, I am sure some use "surprise" as a PR strategy, but I would cut them some slack here. Too many fires at once.

(When I say "they knew since January" I mean 2020, obviously).