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10 Jan, 6 tweets, 3 min read
1. There are still some people that believe the COVID threat is exaggerated by the @PHE_uk "Deaths within 28 days of a positive test" measurement.

However, deaths are separately recorded and logged by mentions on death certificates, and both counts are shown here.
2. It’s important to remember that a doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 in a person’s death based on symptoms and clinical findings.

A positive test result is *not* required.
3. A few other important things to mention here. First, there’s a lag in reporting of at least 11 days for data based on death registrations, and this is likely to affect the Christmas period in particular.

I fully expect the @ONS line to follow the recent @PHE_uk upward slope.
4. Also, due to lack of testing at the time, the @PHE_uk measurement *significantly* underestimates the severity of the first wave. Note how closely the two lines follow each other since then, as capacity has increased.

Yes, March and April 2020 was even worse than many realise.
5. We really don't want to reach that first wave peak again, but hospitalisations and deaths are rising steadily. Please keep safe - and follow the guidelines.

Data sources:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

nrscotland.gov.uk/covid19stats

nisra.gov.uk/sites/nisra.go…
For anyone still doubting all this, take a look at the number of “excess deaths” so far recorded in 2020 above the ten-year average:

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More from @fact_covid

Covid Fact Check UK Profile picture
7 Jan
NHS patients are to receive new life-saving treatments that could cut hospital time by 10 days.

“Clinical trial results show the drugs reduce risk of death by 24% for critically ill patients and time spent in intensive care by up to 10 days.”

gov.uk/government/new…
Clinical trial results showed tocilizumab and sarilumab reduced the relative risk of death by 24%, when administered to patients within 24 hrs of entering intensive care.

Most data came from when the drugs were administered in addition to a corticosteroid, e.g. dexamethasone.
Patients receiving these drugs, typically used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, left intensive care 7 to 10 days earlier on average.

“The rollout of these treatments could therefore contribute significantly towards reducing pressures on hospitals over the coming weeks and months.”
Read 4 tweets
Covid Fact Check UK Profile picture
25 Oct 20
COVID-19 and mass unemployment: A thread.

Coronavirus has had a significant impact on jobs in the UK. The most recent unemployment rate - for June to August - was 4.5%, up 0.4% on the previous three months. That equates to 1.5 million total unemployed. bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
The real picture might be worse - between March and September the number of people claiming benefits for being out of work rose 120% to 2.7 million.

The young have been hit particularly hard by all this. 156,000 fewer 16-to 24-year-olds are employed versus three months before.
In August the @bankofengland forecast unemployment to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2020 (2.5 million).

That was before @RishiSunak unveiled his Job Support Scheme, which aims to protect jobs, but only those that will be ‘viable’ in the spring.

Source: bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…
Read 10 tweets
Covid Fact Check UK Profile picture
24 Oct 20
1. There’s concern from some people that taking the COVID-19 vaccine, when/if it’s available, will be mandatory. After all, Prime Minister Scott Morrison briefly suggested it for Australia (except for the medically exempt), before backtracking.

This will not happen in the UK.
2. The head of the government’s vaccine task force, Kate Bingham, told the @FinancialTimes she wanted to clear up the public’s “misguided” perception.

She said that vaccinating the whole population was “not going to happen”, adding “we just need to vaccinate everyone at risk.”
3. She goes on to say that the government is aiming to vaccinate about 30 million of the 67 million population if a successful vaccine against COVID-19 is found.

That’s the same number as will be offered this year’s flu vaccine.
Read 8 tweets
Covid Fact Check UK Profile picture
23 Oct 20
Has SARS-CoV-2 already mutated?

The answer is very clearly ‘yes’ – but that doesn’t mean there’s a reason to be concerned.

The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) prepared a paper on this for SAGE, which was discussed on 1/10 and published today.
It confirms that the virus Is mutating as it passes from person to person. This is normal, and most mutations will not matter. But there is a chance that some will affect how easily the virus spreads, how likely it is to make someone ill and how severely ill that person becomes.
At he moment, researchers believe that none of the genetic changes found in the virus increase or decrease severity of disease, but they may affect transmission.
 
The report goes on to say there are tens to hundreds of genetically distinct lineages of circulating in the UK.
Read 10 tweets
Covid Fact Check UK Profile picture
22 Oct 20
The government has published details of its winter flu vaccine programme today, with more than 30 million to be vaccinated, with priority given to the most vulnerable, elderly and children.

The Flublok vaccine has been selected, which has been used in the USA the last 3 winters.
A free vaccine will be available to:

• those aged 65 and over
• pregnant women
• people with some pre-existing conditions
• all school year groups up to Year 7
• household contacts of NHS shielded patients
Once vaccination of the most ‘at-risk’ groups is well underway, the @DHSCgovuk will decide when to open the programme to invite people aged 50 to 64, with further details “to be announced soon.”

There are reports of shortages in some pharmacies due to high demand for flu jabs.
Read 5 tweets
Covid Fact Check UK Profile picture
17 Oct 20
Pre-existing conditions of people who died with COVID-19: A thread.

In July, @ONS published its final report on pre-existing conditions in deaths involving COVID-19. As far as I'm aware, this very useful and important information has not been published since.
Of the 50,335 deaths that occurred in March to June involving COVID-19 in England and Wales, 46,376 (92.8%) had COVID-19 assigned as the leading cause of death.

45,859 (91.1%) had at least one pre-existing condition, while 4,476 (8.9%) had none.
The mean number of pre-existing conditions for deaths involving COVID-19 between March and June was 2.1 for those aged 0 to 69 years and 2.3 for those aged 70 years and over.
Read 9 tweets

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