COVID-19 and mass unemployment: A thread.

Coronavirus has had a significant impact on jobs in the UK. The most recent unemployment rate - for June to August - was 4.5%, up 0.4% on the previous three months. That equates to 1.5 million total unemployed. bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
The real picture might be worse - between March and September the number of people claiming benefits for being out of work rose 120% to 2.7 million.

The young have been hit particularly hard by all this. 156,000 fewer 16-to 24-year-olds are employed versus three months before.
In August the @bankofengland forecast unemployment to rise to 7.5% by the end of 2020 (2.5 million).

That was before @RishiSunak unveiled his Job Support Scheme, which aims to protect jobs, but only those that will be ‘viable’ in the spring.

Source: bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…
Given mass unemployment looks inevitable, what will the impact be on society?

We have a fair idea as the great recession saw unemployment in the UK rise to more than 2.5m in April 2010.

Even though this increase occurred over a fairly long period, the effects were devastating.
The @bmj_latest looked into suicides associated with the 2008-10 economic recession in England and found levels of unemployment correlated strongly with suicides among men and women in the period studied.

bmj.com/content/345/bm…
The BMJ estimated the recession in the UK led to about 1,000 excess suicides in England: 846 among men and 155 among women.

They calculated that increases in male unemployment were associated with about two fifths of these rises in suicides among men in England.
There’s many other effects of mass unemployment, with direct links to growing crime and increasing addiction: oceanrecoverycentre.com/2020/06/the-li…

And almost 2 million young people are frightened of homelessness if they lose their main source of income due to COVID:
independent.co.uk/money/1uk-unem…
As the threat from #COVID19 subsides, we will likely be dealing with the implications of mass unemployment on social cohesion, on inequality, on mental health and on the economy: income tax revenues will fall and people will be spending less, with profound consequences.
Poverty will rise, the unemployed will find it harder to get work in the future and physical health problems associated with stress and anxiety will be vast.

In summary, this will progress from being almost exclusively a health crisis to potentially something even more serious.
If your mental health has been affected by these issues, talk to someone you trust, like your GP.

If you’re feeling emotionally distressed you can contact the Samaritans anytime on 116 123, or by emailing jo@samaritans.org.

Other help can be found here: nhs.uk/conditions/str…

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More from @fact_covid

24 Oct
1. There’s concern from some people that taking the COVID-19 vaccine, when/if it’s available, will be mandatory. After all, Prime Minister Scott Morrison briefly suggested it for Australia (except for the medically exempt), before backtracking.

This will not happen in the UK.
2. The head of the government’s vaccine task force, Kate Bingham, told the @FinancialTimes she wanted to clear up the public’s “misguided” perception.

She said that vaccinating the whole population was “not going to happen”, adding “we just need to vaccinate everyone at risk.”
3. She goes on to say that the government is aiming to vaccinate about 30 million of the 67 million population if a successful vaccine against COVID-19 is found.

That’s the same number as will be offered this year’s flu vaccine.
Read 8 tweets
23 Oct
Has SARS-CoV-2 already mutated?

The answer is very clearly ‘yes’ – but that doesn’t mean there’s a reason to be concerned.

The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) prepared a paper on this for SAGE, which was discussed on 1/10 and published today.
It confirms that the virus Is mutating as it passes from person to person. This is normal, and most mutations will not matter. But there is a chance that some will affect how easily the virus spreads, how likely it is to make someone ill and how severely ill that person becomes.
At he moment, researchers believe that none of the genetic changes found in the virus increase or decrease severity of disease, but they may affect transmission.
 
The report goes on to say there are tens to hundreds of genetically distinct lineages of circulating in the UK.
Read 10 tweets
22 Oct
The government has published details of its winter flu vaccine programme today, with more than 30 million to be vaccinated, with priority given to the most vulnerable, elderly and children.

The Flublok vaccine has been selected, which has been used in the USA the last 3 winters.
A free vaccine will be available to:

• those aged 65 and over
• pregnant women
• people with some pre-existing conditions
• all school year groups up to Year 7
• household contacts of NHS shielded patients
Once vaccination of the most ‘at-risk’ groups is well underway, the @DHSCgovuk will decide when to open the programme to invite people aged 50 to 64, with further details “to be announced soon.”

There are reports of shortages in some pharmacies due to high demand for flu jabs.
Read 5 tweets
17 Oct
Pre-existing conditions of people who died with COVID-19: A thread.

In July, @ONS published its final report on pre-existing conditions in deaths involving COVID-19. As far as I'm aware, this very useful and important information has not been published since.
Of the 50,335 deaths that occurred in March to June involving COVID-19 in England and Wales, 46,376 (92.8%) had COVID-19 assigned as the leading cause of death.

45,859 (91.1%) had at least one pre-existing condition, while 4,476 (8.9%) had none.
The mean number of pre-existing conditions for deaths involving COVID-19 between March and June was 2.1 for those aged 0 to 69 years and 2.3 for those aged 70 years and over.
Read 9 tweets
16 Oct
There’s lots of usual information in today’s press release from the @Join_ZOE Covid Symptom Study App, which gives an indication of what’s happening before other sources.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/case-risi…
In the release @timspector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King's College London, comments:

“The data is no longer showing the exponential increases that we were seeing a couple of weeks ago, but is clearly showing new cases continuing to rise.”
“The North West still has the most cases and the fastest acceleration of cases with doubling times of around 10 days. Slowing this rapid rise is a priority. Scotland, Wales, London and the Midlands are slowly increasing with a doubling time of 14-28 days...
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
Important thread for Londoners 👇

Today, @SadiqKhan repeated his claim from 25 September that London is at a “tipping point in the spread of this virus” and that we need to start preparing for additional restrictions.

We need to be careful, but are we really at a tipping point?
Well there’s no doubt that positive cases are rising in the capital, as we’re seeing in much of the UK. That’s borne out by both @PHE_uk/@NHSX dashboard data and the @Join_ZOE Covid Symptom Study App.
However the rate of growth in London does not appear comparable with northern parts of England, which was shown in the @ONS infection survey this week:

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Read 10 tweets

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