Health Nerd Profile picture
10 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Yes, this applies to COVID-19 as well. Stop blaming people for being sick
"But they didn't wear a mask" lots of people who DID wear a mask got COVID-19, it's not perfect protection, you can't apply morality to something that is largely out of your control
It is exactly the same vibe as "they ate cheeseburgers and now they've got diabetes", it is both more complex than that and totally unreasonable to blame physical illness on someone's moral stance

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More from @GidMK

11 Jan
Some movement to announce here: JAMA Open have now corrected this paper 2 months after it was published

Unfortunately, it has gone from an error-filled useless analysis to a slightly less error-filled useless analysis

Some more peer-review on twitter 1/n
2/n The updated paper is here…

And you can read @ikashnitsky and my original commentary on the paper here
2.5/n Important to note that this is a very influential paper. It has been in >100 news stories, and has been cited by the EU and WHO (!)

Worrying that until recently it was openly wrong
Read 33 tweets
10 Jan
"Lockdowns don't work, you can't control COVID-19 with govt restrictions!"

Pretty much every state in Australia has now controlled an exponential outbreak using a variety of restrictions, if we can do it you can too
Hopefully we can get enough people vaccinated by mid-2021 to help alleviate the issue anyway, but it remains remarkably ignorant to say that govt action can't control COVID-19 outbreaks when it very clearly can
Whether you WANT to control the disease with such measures is a very different question, but the obvious fact that you CAN is really not up for debate
Read 4 tweets
3 Jan
Statements made by @MichaelYeadon3 by date, against the number of mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients in the UK

At a certain point, I do wonder why people still listen
And yes, for anyone interested in facts, most positive SARS-CoV-2 tests are true positives (even in the UK), this is not some conspiracy but actually quite simple mathematics…
"This is just like previous years' influenza"

In 2017/18 and 18/19 the peak admissions across the UK to ICU/HDU units for flu did not top 300 per week, making the current situation at least 5x worse than your average season

And it's getting worse
Read 4 tweets
29 Dec 20
A few people have asked me to do this, and I always like to be consistent

The Great Barrington Declaration is unscientific nonsense. What about the John Snow Memorandum (JSM)

Some peer-review on twitter 1/n
2/n The JSM is here, please do have a look and read if you are interested:

Full disclosure: I agree with the sentiment, but I rarely sign petitions and did not do so with the JSM
3/n The JSM is basically a call to action to implement public health responses to COVID-19, particularly in Europe and the US

The specific examples cited are places with very good control
Read 30 tweets
28 Dec 20
Fascinating. The paper itself merely compares three different models of the reproductive number of COVID-19 in different places. For lockdowns:

Model 1 = big benefit
Model 2 = small benefit
Model 3 = mixed benefit
Model 1 was published to great acclaim in a paper in Nature…

The crux of this new preprint appears to basically be saying that this previous publication was pretty shit
And look, it's hard to disagree that a lot of COVID-19 models are terrible

What's weird is how denialists are seizing on this paper as evidence that lockdowns didn't work
Read 8 tweets
26 Dec 20
Turns out that cherry-picking news stories that agree with your preconceptions is less evidence than it is a basic logical error, but you keep on trying Alex
If we actually wanted to know whether healthcare workers were refusing vaccines at a high rate, we'd need to know a number of things:

1. Vaccine doses available
2. Doses intended to be given to HCW
3. Doses refused by job
We'd ideally want to know why the vaccines were refused, as well. Did HCWs worry about side-effects or did their employers not give them adequate time to get the vaccine?
Read 5 tweets

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