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3 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Statements made by @MichaelYeadon3 by date, against the number of mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients in the UK

At a certain point, I do wonder why people still listen
And yes, for anyone interested in facts, most positive SARS-CoV-2 tests are true positives (even in the UK), this is not some conspiracy but actually quite simple mathematics

gidmk.medium.com/most-positive-…
"This is just like previous years' influenza"

In 2017/18 and 18/19 the peak admissions across the UK to ICU/HDU units for flu did not top 300 per week, making the current situation at least 5x worse than your average season

And it's getting worse
Sorry, I should've said at least 5x worse than THE WORST WEEK DURING YOUR AVERAGE FLU SEASON

Which is huge

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More from @GidMK

Health Nerd Profile picture
29 Dec 20
A few people have asked me to do this, and I always like to be consistent

The Great Barrington Declaration is unscientific nonsense. What about the John Snow Memorandum (JSM)

Some peer-review on twitter 1/n
2/n The JSM is here, please do have a look and read if you are interested:

johnsnowmemo.com

Full disclosure: I agree with the sentiment, but I rarely sign petitions and did not do so with the JSM
3/n The JSM is basically a call to action to implement public health responses to COVID-19, particularly in Europe and the US

The specific examples cited are places with very good control
Read 30 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
28 Dec 20
Fascinating. The paper itself merely compares three different models of the reproductive number of COVID-19 in different places. For lockdowns:

Model 1 = big benefit
Model 2 = small benefit
Model 3 = mixed benefit
Model 1 was published to great acclaim in a paper in Nature nature.com/articles/s4158…

The crux of this new preprint appears to basically be saying that this previous publication was pretty shit
And look, it's hard to disagree that a lot of COVID-19 models are terrible

What's weird is how denialists are seizing on this paper as evidence that lockdowns didn't work
Read 8 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
26 Dec 20
Turns out that cherry-picking news stories that agree with your preconceptions is less evidence than it is a basic logical error, but you keep on trying Alex
If we actually wanted to know whether healthcare workers were refusing vaccines at a high rate, we'd need to know a number of things:

1. Vaccine doses available
2. Doses intended to be given to HCW
3. Doses refused by job
We'd ideally want to know why the vaccines were refused, as well. Did HCWs worry about side-effects or did their employers not give them adequate time to get the vaccine?
Read 5 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
23 Dec 20
Disagreement over science should not consist of personal attacks

That is not an excuse for uncritically accepting all bad science, nor for refusing to critique things that are clearly flawed
Many people have taken my criticisms of Ioannidis' papers, for example, to be some sort of horrifying vendetta, even though I've never once said anything bad about the man himself
The problem is that some people see any criticism of senior academics by their juniors as impolite and disrespectful, and therefore a personal attack

I find this attitude endlessly absurd
Read 4 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
22 Dec 20
It's coming towards the end of the year, and there are still countless people minimizing the pandemic and spreading untruths

So I thought I'd do a bit of a thread of FACTS about COVID-19 1/n
2/n Fact 1: the death rate of COVID-19 varies substantially by age, but is high even for relatively young people

For example, a 1 in 2,700 risk of death from COVID-19 for a 35 year old, based on our comprehensive paper on the topic link.springer.com/article/10.100…
3/n Fact 2: COVID-19 is MUCH more dangerous than influenza

For younger age groups, COVID-19 may be similarly lethal. For anyone over 30, it is much worse. @zorinaq has a nice graphic on this
Read 34 tweets
Health Nerd Profile picture
21 Dec 20
I've been tangentially watching this critique by @ikashnitsky of another worrying paper in JAMA Psych, so I thought I'd briefly discuss my own thoughts on the paper in a bit of twitter peer-review 1/n
2/n Paper is here, it looks at suicide rates in Maryland during 2020, and finds that there are racial disparities in these rates. In particular, there were fewer White individuals dying of suicide during lockdown, but more Black people died this way jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap…
3/n @ikashnitsky and one of the authors have had a fantastic back-and-forth, and I strongly recommend you read the threads here:

Read 23 tweets

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