Thread by @patio11

Far be it to me to tell public health officials how to do their jobs, but as a professional in the field of conversion rate optimization, let me point out that this could be improved upon.

https://twitter.com/polly/status/1348464494108954626

Was strongly debating adding "to kill less people" to the last tweet, which would be entirely accurate in highlighting the stakes of this policy decision, but be broadly considered impolite.

"How would you improve upon this?"

Start out by requiring no data entry, at all, and assuming the base case is "If you are over $AGE and show up at a location which has a shot in inventory, you get a shot." Broadcast the list of places and addresses as widely as possible.

That should include "A spokesperson asks the nightly news to allow them to read it aloud every evening until it is abundantly available."

As for the online demand harvesting system, which can exist in parallel with the above, let people schedule a date/time with nothing other than their email or cell phone number.

Explain qualification required at fifth grade reading level. Should not be more than 2~3 questions.

i.e. "If you are over the age of 65, or you work in healthcare, you get a shot. If you do are under the age of 55 and you do not work in healthcare, you will not be given a shot right now, but can get it later."

The political economy question which asks for a flowchart worthy of a D&D game composed entirely of sysadmins and regulatory lawyers might do well for making constituencies feel loved, but pessimizes for lives saved.

It isn't worth the lives.

The really maddening part of this to me is thought experiments like: "You know, we could make a game of it: ask people to put down a million dollar deposit for 1k doses, give them a checklist, and anyone who gives them out compliantly gets another 1k doses."

And when I play that thought experiment, I think "Yeeeeeep I foresee capable institutions absolutely destroying incapable institutions in a way which is maximally public and undeniable, resulting in, and I am extremely literal here, guns being pointed at them to get them to stop"

"Seems unlikely."

Again, governors of California and New York have gotten on the TV to emphasize that practicing medicine during a pandemic has been noticed, caused their extreme displeasure, and will result in revocation of licenses, public censure, and jail if possible.

"You're being uncharitable."

The maximally charitable version is that the governors, in their considered wisdom, think the flowchart for vaccine prioritization is so important that they would point a gun (metaphorical but, if pressed, literal) at a doctor to enforce it.

"That gun image is being extremely uncharitable."

I mean, you can assume that the process of being arrested, tried, convicted, and sent to jail involves no firearms, but it absolutely requires coercive force and the threat of physical violence. Impossible to not acknowledge.