Thread by @tnewtondunn

Rules about exercise is today's lockdown row, but the rate by which hospital admissions are now increasing all over the UK feels altogether more worrying. A brief thread... (1)

NHS Providers CEO @chrishopson warned the Health Committee this morning he now fears this wave's peak will no longer subside in Janaury, but now extend into early or mid February because of the increased transmissibility of the new strain (2)

Rates of increase are now slowing in London, the SE and East of England to only(!) 3% more admissions daily now, but they are rocketing in the Midlands, NW and SW. In the NW alone, daily growth rate in hospital admissions now above 7%. ht @davewwest for this graph (3)

I am told by senior health figures these rates are all the more worrying, because trusts in the Midlands and North have significant numbers of patients still in hospital from the second surge in Oct/Nov, and the SW has a smaller bed base and is less able to absorb pressure (4)

What effect does that have on the lockdown's length? Restrictions can and will ease only when the NHS is no longer under heavy pressure - the Govt’s No1 rule. As long as hospitals are full/cases high, the lockdown will remain - with or without a successful vaccine rollout (5)

So how long will it take to get tens of thousands more people out of hospital and the case rate well down if it doesn't even start declining until the end of Feb? Right now, even a March end to lockdown looks 'Hancockian' (6)