Thread by @fascinatorfun

🦠🦠45,533 new cases so generally lower than last week. May we be levelling off? Approach with caution as Monday cases processed later in the week (to see impact from schools opening)

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 1243 (28 day cut off). Looking at deaths by date of death there is an inexorable rise

The ONS/ Stats authority have reported 89,243 deaths from Covid (death certificates)

Remember this runs low because
1/ they report by date of registration not by date of death
2/ there were three bank holidays in the period from last full report 18/12/20

Expect more next week

So if we add the known deaths by date of death from 2/1/21 to 10/1/21, the most conservative measure possible we already have
⚰️💔⚰️ 95,589 deaths even without counting deaths yesterday and today (not showing in the data yet).

This despite the fact that it takes 2 weeks to get almost all deaths.

You can see that if you look at deaths by date of death for 6th and 7th Jan they are already recording 799 deaths each day, despite likely being incomplete.

I think we are in the 800+ deaths a day territory.

It is hard to see (once all deaths are reported) how we are not at around 100k COVID deaths by the end of this week.

The other worry is hospitals being at saturation point meaning care is rationed and people die who might otherwise have lives.

I beg you to stay safe.

It is hard to see (once all deaths are reported) how we are not at around 100k COVID deaths by the end of this week.

The other worry is hospitals being at saturation point meaning care is rationed and people die who might otherwise have lives.

I beg you to stay safe.

🏥 Inpatients. It is possible the RATE of admission might be dropping slightly but still in VERY large numbers putting great strain on hospital resources. 4240 on 7/1/20.

🛌 likely c36,572 looking at most recent report from each nation.

Unsustainably high. Care rationing

This is absolutely terrible for the medics who have to make decisions about who will get ICU care, who can get HDU care and who will get oxygen when supplies run low.

Terrible for families too who are likely to be thinking - just another month and they would have a vaccination

Ventilator beds, too are now markedly over the numbers in use at the height of the Spring surge with likely 3,483 in use.

This, despite the far higher use of CPAP rather than ventilation

Really. Be as careful as you can. As strict as you can, for your sake and for the medics

The worst of it is that the bulk of the post Christmas and Ney year deaths are still to happen. Remember the 82k cases by swab date on 29/12 and 75k on 4/1/21?

I feel such a terrible sorrow.

A little bit of good news

VACCINATIONS:

2,843,815 (1st & 2nd dose combined) as of this evening

GOD!

BBC News Midlands

1 in 3 deaths in Birmingham were due to Covid.

Oh. And as for Heneghan saying we should apply a 28 cut off date for Covid deaths in case they might count someone who had tested +ve & then knocked over by a bus

165 RTA deaths in the year in Birmingham

In the Midlands as a whole in 2020 1 in 8 deaths were due to Covid, outstripping cancer deaths.

It looks, from @LawrenceGilder ‘s summary as if 60 day deaths (+ve Covid test and Covid on the death certificate) are nearly 9% more than 28 day deaths at least when prevalence is high.

1356 (v 1243)

https://twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1349045058193002499