A break from my regular $AMD coverage. I’ve been looking at $ACEV for a while and I like it, it’s now my 2nd largest holding. It’s a SPAC. If you've heard that but haven't learned about them, overdue to learn. They can be good in this market, with downside protection until merger
$ACEV is taking Achronix public. Achronix is an FPGA company that’s been around for a while. Much smaller than Altera (acquired by Intel) and Xilinx (being acquired by AMD), it is arguably the last independent high performance FPGA company.
The investor presentation is here: achronix.com/sites/default/… I’m not going to rehash it, take a look yourself. But I will go through what I see as the biggest risks, and some big benefits that aren’t clear in the presentation.
Achronix profitably ships real products. Gross margins are almost 80%. They are releasing a new set of FPGAs on TSMC N7 and have also released FPGA designs as IP to include in a custom SoC. This video explains what they do well, worth a watch
People seem to like their product, it is well suited for some strongly growing markets. Much of their forward projections, at least for this year and next are deals that are already done. Extra sales can boost their profit a lot.
Achronix suffers from a lack of mindshare and confidence that they will still be around in a few years to furnish their product. The SPAC will give them enough money to fund operations for years without revenue, and give them more awareness as a public company (AKA meme stonk).
Achronix can be like ARM for FPGA, licensing IP. AMD taking Xilinx private is good for Achronix, IMO. Xilinx probably won’t be able to sell FPGA IP. Anyone that wants to integrate FPGA into ARM or RISC, or is named Jensen Huang is going to want to look at Achronix IP.
AMD (and presumably Intel) will likely incorporate FPGAs into their chip offerings, and again I see this as a positive for Achronix. This will help to mainstream FPGA use, and as experience grows, Achronix will be there for anyone making their own chips.
Ok, risks. The last few years Intel has been *their only client*. Yikes. But they appear to already have some additional deals, and with new products, especially with eFPGA designs on TSMC, they just need the marketing and mindshare that this IPO will give them.
Their financial projections include 0 new deals from Intel. Intel has their own internal FPGA company, why are they buying from Achronix? But they have been. Either Achronix is providing something Altera cannot, or Intel just needed something that was ready to go.
New orders from Intel would be a big upside surprise, and that depends on Intel not getting their stuff together and using their internal IP. So. What are the odds that happens. I think of $ACEV as an indirect long on Intel dysfunction. It doesn't need that, but it benefits.
Maybe FPGA's just don’t catch on (Lisa Su thinks otherwise). Maybe Achronix’s new products are totally broken. I like $ACEV at the $11.40 it’s at, market cap post merger of around $2.25B, knowing I can redeem shares for ~$10. A few big deals and Achronix is worth double that.
Here's an article from @dylan522p with his take: semianalysis.com/achronix-goes-…
One more thing, SPAC stands for
S - Read
P - The
C - Filings
SPACs tend to be very similar, once you know how one works you have a good handle on others. There are differences and you should read the SEC filings. Here are $ACEV’s filings: sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse…

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More from @realmemes6

14 Jan
TSMC $TSM projecting capital expenses of 25-28B USD in 2021. 80% allocated for advanced process tech, 3, 5, 7nm. 10% advanced packaging and mask making, 10% other. 2020 capex, originally slated at $15B, was over $17B. For context $AMD's entire revenue for 2020 estimated at $9.5B
Management sees a growing market and TSMC growing faster than the market, with a 2020-2025 CAGR of 10-15%. In 2019 capex was initially estimated at $10-11B and then revised up to $15B. They are expanding fast, and newer nodes are more capital intensive.
3nm looking good and has strong customer interest, production in 2H 2022.
All this, especially the capex, in line with suggestions Intel will be increasing their use of TSMC fabs, or else AMD making really large increases (or both), but they also project a lot of growth in phones
Read 21 tweets
12 Jan
AMD CES 2021 thread.
15 minutes in:
✅ hype video with no substance
✅ video about how AMD is helping solve the trending problem of our day
✅ technology is changing the way we live and work
✅ Interviews about all the above with clients
❌ Technical information
I wonder after a career spent in Intel's shadow, the instinct as soon as success and money comes is to be like Intel. And Intel is trying to be like Apple. Don't do it!!

Be nerdy engineers please, I'll take "boring execution", thank you very much.
CEOs from multiple PC manufacturing companies noting that the pandemic has caused people to rely on computers and the internet. Importantly, they believe that after pandemic is over, people will continue to use computers and the internet. 😂 Sorry, I can't help it.
Read 8 tweets
11 Jan
$AMD at new all time highs today before CES prez tomorrow. Lots of leaks about Zen 3 based APUs. Last year no one was ready for how good AMD's laptop chips were, not a lot of models to buy. This year AMD won't be able to fab enough chips to meet demand.
Also, new mobile GPUs, Milan server CPUs, desktop APUs, and a new threadripper are due for launches. (Not saying that will happen during CES)

AMD on TSMC N7 has node parity with Intel's best and node advantage over Nvidia. AMD will especially benefit in lower power products.
Worth noting that Intel $INTC is doing it's main CES presentations today. Based on the description and length of their keynote with Gregory Bryant (1PM Pacific time), I would be surprised if they said much about Rocket Lake, their next great hope to compete with AMD. However...
Read 6 tweets
5 Mar 20
OK, $AMD financial day megathread. They are releasing their financial outlook for the next 4-5 years (!!)

I'll put my thoughts in this thread, presentation is at ir.amd.com/events/event-d…
This is AMD's estimated TAM, $79 Billion. Lisa Su says this is ~2023 timeframe
Lisa Su - "Count on us to have a very strong cadence" going forward

Zen 3 & 4, RDNA 2 & 3
Also talking a lot about packaging and interconnect being a big deal for AMD.
Read 52 tweets
31 Dec 19
On this last day of 2019, grab a cocoa and let’s do some Fermi approximations to figure out how much of TSMC’s 7nm (N7 node) production AMD is using, as of Q3 2019. See what-if.xkcd.com/84/ for an explanation, and xkcd.com/2205/ for an example.
In response to . Assumptions need to be reasonable, but don’t need to be exact. Let’s assume 7nm chips sold in Q4 were mostly fabbed in Q3. In Q4 AMD revenue is forecast to be $2.2 Billion USD. Let’s gather relevant info about the sources of AMDs revenue.
AMD’s 7nm production so far is limited to a number of GPUs, and the CCDs (core chiplets) of it’s Zen2 based CPU products, including newly released Epyc Rome and Ryzen 3600, 3700, and 39xx series processors. No APUs have any 7nm parts yet.
Read 33 tweets

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