The last week has proved that almost nothing can stop the GOP’s politicization of their illiberalism—now ranking near Poland and Turkey’s right-wing parties for their endorsement of authoritarianism. They have radicalized their voters against democracy. Dark days for the republic
We might have three major (endogenous) ideological dimensions in America now: left-right economic, open-closed social attitudes, and liberalism-authoritarianism in support for democracy. That last divide is untenable. It’s incompatible with our government.
If the GOP can basically just campaign against pro-democracy, anti-corruption speech with traditional culture-war arguments (against censorship &c), it’s really hard to see the path forward. No electoral incentive for leadership, no accountability. Are we too far gone?
Not to beat a dead horse, but.. see the attached tweet. If GOP leaders are not going to unify to hold anti-democracy terrorists and insurrections its accountable for their actions, the situation is only going to worsen
Good. If GOP Senators voice support for conviction, this could be huge. But this is only consequential in the long term if they take the message to their voters, or else short-term pressure from outrage will give way to the same old electoral incentives.

But given the political-psychological influence of opinion leaders, Cheney and McConnell coming out in support of impeachment is obviously big. Will be a big step toward purging the GOP of Trump and his ilk, though obviously I’m skeptical of that working in the long term.

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More from @gelliottmorris

7 Jan
I don't see Congress is at all addressing what happened today. Trumpism, Republican power ideology, and our electoral institutions brought us to this point, and there doesn't seem to be any reckoning with that (I'm mainly talking about from the GOP side).
Sure, Romney, Graham, and some others have objected to the anti-certification nefariousness, but that's not going to stop what's really threatening American democracy right now.
Saying "enough is enough" in no way repairs years of perpetuating conspiracy theories about fraud and otherwise destabilizing democracy. Republican lawmakers need to reckon with what they've created (violent, anti-democratic mobs) or it's all for naught.

Read 4 tweets
6 Jan
It's early in GA, but the NYT needles are pretty good. Plus: AP Votecast has Trump's approval in GA down since Nov; polls were good in the general; and the $2k checks and Trump call could be big factors. I'm happy if I'm a Dem, but Atlanta results could tip the scales.
It is worth noting that the average shift since November in counties that are 100% reporting (per the NYT) is about two percentage points toward Democrats. I'm not expecting Ossoff/Warnock to win by _that_ much, but directionally this is often a good indicator.
Read 21 tweets
11 Dec 20
not an easy day to focus on book writing. is this how political scientists have felt for the last 4 years?
Not only is the statistical analysis that Paxton relies on incomprehensibly misspecified, but the author actually explains *why* it's wrong (later votes came from cities, competitive battleground metros are less latino) IN THE CONCLUSION OF HIS STATEMENTS…
another reminder not to let economists near voting data
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov 20
Our latest YouGov/The Economist poll has a host of troubling findings about public confidence in the election.

Most shocking is that 86% of Trump voters say that Biden "did not legitimately win the election." 73% say that we'll "never know the real outcome of this election."
We also see the usual patterns in attitudes about mail-in voting and fraud. 88% of Trump voters say they believe that "illegal immigrants voted fraudulently in 2016 and tried again in 2020," for ex, and 90% believed that "mail ballots are being manipulated to favor Joe Biden."
Republicans are also exhibiting some... concerning... attitudes about the franchise, with 46% saying that "some people are not smart enough to vote" (27% among Dems) and 43% saying that people should have to pass a test before voting (15% for Dems).
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov 20
This map shows you which parts of the country swung to the left or to the right v 2016. Georgia and sub/urban Texas really stand out to me:… Image
Ohio and Iowa are also notable for their shift to the right, which is doubly striking since the polls said they had swung so far to the left
(we are predicting results in counties that haven't fully reported totals yet)
Read 6 tweets
10 Nov 20
It is weird that so many people who rely on public polling for their jobs are instantly willing to trash the industry with damaging statements like these, instead of trying to calmly and transparently explain what went wrong and work toward better polls in the future.
Like, if part of the answer to "why aren't people taking surveys?" is "because people in the media trash them and say they are biased and aren't good for anything," then it's weird that people who know better would actively participate in the industry's demise
For posterity's sake,

(1) Here is our first cut at how the polls/models missed support for Trump, again:…

(2) Here is what we're going to do differently next time:…
Read 5 tweets

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