Thread by @AlexandraErin

So as I alluded to in my impeachment thread, I don't think the Democrats made their case as strongly as they could have, but they didn't need to because Donald Trump himself made the case for them.

The Senate trial will be different and I hope they make the strongest case.

Today was really more of a procedural vote than anything. The votes needed were lined up beforehand, with some wiggle room on the Republican side.

There is a chance! For my money, assuming nothing major and unexpected changes between then and now, the chance rests on enough Republicans seeing and seizing on a chance to be FREE of him.

https://twitter.com/colken16/status/1349474255591923718

The big case against conviction on the Republican side is: we're afraid of Trump and he can hurt us politically if we anger him. But the Georgia run-offs and the Peril of Pence show the limits of that argument: it's impossible to keep him happy and he'll blame you for failing.

The Republican argument for convicting him is, if they can keep him from running at all in 2024 then he can't run in 2024. They get to have a primary without him. They get to have an election without him.

And if they feel like they can keep him sufficiently ostracized and marginalized and sidelined that he can't set himself up as a mainstream Republican kingmaker, I think some of them will vote to kick him all the way to the curb. On garbage night.

If there's no chance of him being president again, then he automagically loses a big chunk of political relevancy overnight. Maybe not as much as most people would, and a lot of that depends on if Twitter et al hold a firm line against him.

All of this analysis is assuming there is zero room for actual principles, zero room for actual courage, zero chance for even having any personal indignation that he attacked Congress and imperiled their lives.

If any Republicans take those factors into account... I'll be surprised, but it amps the possibility of conviction.

Now, the likelihood is high that by the time the Senate re-convenes we will know even more about what happened on and leading up to January 6th and it won't reflect well on Trump, Trump's family, and Trump's administration. That likely ups the odds of conviction.

The likelihood is also high that there will be at least some attempts at further insurrection in the dates running up to and including January 20th, and this will likely also not reflect great on Trump and his team.

McConnell prevented an actual trial from happening last time around and Republicans voted almost entirely on party lines. This time, he'll be passing the gavel to the Democrats and the Impeachment Managers (from the House) will get to actually present a case.

I make no prediction as to the outcome but I am confident in saying that conviction is a possible outcome, in a way it wasn't last time.

At a guess? I think he feels like if he *has* to give up the power, he'll happily hand off the responsibility.

https://twitter.com/Living400lbs/status/1349485696403193856