Thread by @sundersays

This is certainly arguable. (A lot of people argue it).

Different types of claim - principled/ethical ones, and consequential ones (about impact of various courses of action or inaction). It would be interesting to look seriously at what we might predict about the latter.

https://twitter.com/PaulEmbery/status/1349474864638386176

Mostly people say "this is right - and it will work" or "this feels wrong - and it won't work" which means those two debates get conflated.

Though there are contexts when there is an explicit sense of, for example, a Peace versus Justice trade-off (eg after civil wars).

The most plausible intuition against impeachment is "just 13 days" & also that the current heightened atmosphere could do with defusing.

But that might make a good case for a slower impeachment (or other process). Indictment in office, and trial beyond it.

If there isn't an impeachment, there must obviously be a very significant level of inquiry & investigation, and criminal trials.

Depending on the evidence is, it may be very odd for Trump to face no sanctions at all, while everyone lower down the food chain does

Trump will always be a "martyr" to some.

Would he be a weaker or stronger martyr if convicted and disbarred? Or if sanctioned in other ways? Or not sanctioned at all.

He may have the strongest credentials in the case where the action is weakest - can rewrite script of Jan '21

Elite cues matter. Support for insurrection began about 21% but halved in some surveys a week on. This is before any funerals of police officers, investigations, trials.

Trump's message: winner. Being "persecuted" as a loser is not a great pitch

https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1348619647491469314

Strong incentives for GOP to finish Trump if they can, though he will have heirs.

Maybe Principles v Tactics for Dems?

If Rampaging Trump splits opposition in half over violence & Republic = bad for GOP? (Its good to see this isn't a big theme in Dem circles - vs Constitution)