Thread by @MarkHertling

Had a chance to provide some info to @NatashaBertrand regarding the challenges associated with countering IEDs. That exchange caused me to ponder the question: “Could we be approaching the early stages of an insurgency in the US?” 1

https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1349467713194913797

Now, my friend and former DHS official @juliettekayyem has suggested the term “stochastic terrorists” to describe the actions of those who attacked the capital last week. Her model, in part, describes random timing & targeting to excite a generalized fear in society. 2

That could be past of an insurgency. But given expansive online collaboration & planning, this may be the beginning of something much more nefarious & more difficult to address. We ought to be wary of what we may be facing. Let me explain... 3

In 2003, I was in the Pentagon on the Joint Staff. The Chairman asked me to define what we were experiencing in Iraq. Was it guerrilla war, a counter-terrorism fight, an insurgency? After researching, I suggested we were facing a “complex insurgency.” 4

We had transitioned from a conventional attack to a new fight, and that “complex insurgency” should have caused our military and State Dept to do certain things. We didn’t adapt as fast as we should have in Iraq in 2003, and that negatively shaped the fight for years. 5

It’s always good to know the kind of fight you’re in. “Insurgency” is defined in our military doctrinal manuals, and that definition suggests certain actions. 6

Here’s the definition: “An insurgency is an organized uprising that uses violent & nonviolent means to overthrow an existing government, or to wrest away aspects of govt control, either de jure or de facto, over parts of its territory.... 7

The description continues: “Insurgents often count on government security forces (i.e., police, military, etc) to over-react, which may have the effect of driving more recruits who may question the legitimacy of the government into their ranks.” 8

Usually insurgencies flourish when the government is authoritative, does not support the desires of the majority of the people, or has not adequately addressed grievances of the population. 9

For example, in Iraq the Sunni and Kurdish population saw the Shia-led government as being authoritative and incompetent, the problems within provinces outside of Baghdad were not addressed by the central govt, and the population was aggrieved. 10

In the US today, lies and disinformation - fomented by those in government & foreign malign actors, echoed by media, and reinforced by government inaction to resolve crises - has stoked the desire to revolt against the government. 11

Additionally, loss of faith in govt intelligence, increased desire for greater individual freedoms with reduction to a social/societal contract, expansion of unregulated militias, and a modeling of military behavior by a non-mil segment of the population is troubling 12

This is NOT a prediction we will be fighting a large-scale insurgency in the US. But we ought be concerned about to counter continuing dysfunction from our elected officials, government processes, media activity, & how we live up to our personal responsibilities 13

What we are experiencing now - and what we may continue to see post-Biden inauguration - will require holistic changes...primarily a return to our nation’s values so we might ensure the continued health of our democratic republic. 14/End.