NEW—How good is “natural infection” immunity? 83% protection—People who have been infected by #COVID19 “may have immunity to the virus for around five months”, says study led by Public Health England (PHE). Possibly longer with more followup. 🧵…
2) “Two groups of people, one with no evidence of previous infection and the other with evidence of past infection. It concluded that past infection reduces the chances of catching the virus again by 83% for *at least five months*.”
3) 83% protection via natural infection isn’t foolproof against reinfection at all. Would you assume you’re invincible with those odds?

Another reason chasing herd immunity isn’t as good as vaccines.
4) “"The findings suggest that re-infection rates in the positive cohort were 83% lower than the negative cohort during the follow-up period."

But researchers warned that the protection was not total and that it was unclear how long any immunity lasts.
5) “We now know that most of those who have had the virus, and developed antibodies, are protected from reinfection, but this is not total and we do not yet know how long protection lasts," Susan Hopkins, senior medical adviser at PHE and co-leader of the study
6) “It is also possible that those who have a degree of immunity against the virus may still be able to transmit it to others.
7) “Even if you believe you already had the disease and are protected, you can be reassured it is highly unlikely you will develop severe infections. But there is still a risk you could acquire an infection and transmit (it) to others," Hopkins said.
8) Hopkins emphasized the point during an interview with the BBC's Today program on Thursday.
"[Infection] reduces your risk by at least 80%....but it doesn't eliminate it," she said.
9) "We found people with very high amounts of virus in their nose and throat swabs, that would easily be in the range which would cause levels of transmission to other individuals."

➡️people who previously caught Covid still need to obey distancing rules to avoid transmitting.
10) Also, as noted by @adamhamdy, the study period runs to the end of October when UK prevalence was relatively low before the recent wave and new variants.

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More from @DrEricDing

16 Jan
Los Angeles situation here is dire. Ambulances circle for hours, unable to find ERs that can accept patients. Hospitals running out of O2. ICU capacity at zero. Patients lie in hallways & tents. National Guard has arrived to manage the flood of bodies. 😢…
3) EMS also issued harsh edicts for ambulances 🚑
Read 6 tweets
16 Jan
TROUBLESOME—The new variants that each have the tricky antibody-evading E484k mutation are what worries me.

➡️This Science piece summarizes what I’ve been warning last 2 weeks w/ the new South Africa 🇿🇦 B1135 variant & new Brazil 🇧🇷 P1 variant. #COVID19…
2) indeed, @jbloom_lab showed that E484K also reduced the potency of convalescent sera from some donors 10-fold—although he is quick to add this does not necessarily mean the mutation would cause people’s immunity to the new strain to drop 10-fold. Image
3) To be clear, 🇿🇦 and 🇧🇷 variants evolved independently. But P.1 adds to the concerns because it appears to have hit on a similar constellation of mutations and has emerged in a place with a high level of immunity.
Read 7 tweets
16 Jan
Pretty much complete FUBAR on the vaccine delivery and rollout by Trump WH.

Promising to release reserve vaccines that don’t even exist is even worse.

All this after they turned down 100 mil extra doses from Pfizer earlier as well.

#COVID19 is winning. We are not.
2) To be clear, we did have a reserve, but that was depleted by Dec. but Alex Azar promised to send more vaccines from reserve this week... except there was none anymore. Nobody knows how they could just make up a falsehood on such a reserve if there was none anymore!
3) Pfizer released a funny statement..

“Operation Warp Speed has asked us to start shipping second doses only **recently**. As a result, we have on hand all the 2nd doses of previous shipments to US.”

How “recent” is recent?…
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
📍Operation Warp Speed leaders waited more than two months to approve a plan to distribute and administer Covid-19 vaccines proposed by U.S. health officials leaving states with little time to implement a mass-vaccination campaign amid #COVID19 surge.…
2) “State and local officials had been clamoring for months for help preparing for the largest vaccination program in U.S. history when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a playbook in September to guide them.
3) “CDC had wanted to start helping states plan in June how to get people vaccinated. But OWS rebuffed plan for distributing vaccines. They adopted similar plan in August only after exploring other options—then held release of CDC’s playbook for 2 weeks for additional clearance
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
BREAKING—The window-breacher of the Capitol siege has been arrested—a Proudboy member named Dominic ‘Spazzo’ Pezzola. He has been sought by FBI for a long time—FBI say his group had stated that they “would have killed Mike Pence if given the chance”.
2) Pezzola also encouraged rioters after smashing the glass protecting the west side of the building.…
3) Yesterday, they also caught “the caveman” who used a flag to beat a DC police officer unconscious
Read 7 tweets
15 Jan
BREAKING—We are out of vaccine reserves! Trump HHS Sec Azar announced this week that the govt would begin releasing #COVID19 vaccine doses held in reserve for 2nd shots—but no such reserve existed!! Trump HHS had already shipped out reserves end of Dec!… Image
2) “Now, state and local officials across the country are realizing their limited vaccine supply will not immediately increase, dashing hopes of dramatically expanding access for millions of people.”
3) “Health officials in some cities and states were informed in recent days about the reality of the situation, while others are still in the dark.
Read 13 tweets

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