Thread by @RachelBitecofer

1. Good news- my OG 2020 prez forecast- posted July 1st 2019, which I could not find anywhere online for awhile, is now back up, stored via @SSRN

In it I argued the D nom, no matter who is was, would dominate in the Midwest bc of surge turnout among

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

2. all elements of the Democrat's voter coalition, including Indies that lean Dem, but most esp from GIANT surges of college educated voters in the 'burbs. It also said AZ was highly likely to flip.

Though it thought GA competitive, didn't say it would for sure flip.

IMP to

3. keep in mind, when this forecast released, the election analysis world was still very much entranced with the HillBilly Eulogy, non-college educated white Trump Army theory of 2020. If what I wrote seems like a no brainer bc its almost exactly what happened, you should know,

4. at the time it was rejected & ridiculed by those that are smarter than me. And now they'd rebut this with "well, the world changed w COVID & the economy collapsing so OF COURSE the election came out along these lines!" to which I'd reply: if the results of 2020 were a product

5. of COVID & Trump's loss of a strong economy than the results we got (these results) are NOT the results we'd have seen. The results I describe/predict in this analysis 16 months before the 2020 election, and half a year before Ds settled upon their nominee are results produced

6. from turnout surge/partisan composition election NOT 1 in which a major event happened that the incumbent president failed to handle & thus, the middle of the electorate "swang" away from him. Of course, if you read my research you will learn that it speaks about the "middle"

7. of the electorate, so-called "swing" voters & what they do. It argues that about 10-12% of the electorate are "swing" voters, "pure" independents that don't "lean" towards either party & are thus, winnable. My theory argues though that even these voters are fairly predictable-

8. they will break in favor of the party out of power bc they are generally unhappy w the status quo & the status quo is generally getting assailed by the media environment. So despite that Politico article that says swing voters are a myth- that is a massive overstatement of my

9. theory. However, in polisci, it is a common finding that most swing voters are not, in fact, swing voters bc they lean & leaners vote for the party they lean to, as this graph I show y'all from the 2020 election clearly demonstrates. The novel thing I argue about Indie voters

10. is that they have a totally diff & equally imp kind of swing: a turnout swing. AND they respond to negative partisanship, just like their "out of the closet" partisan peers.

Glad this post is back up!