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Rachel
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15 Jan, 5 tweets, 6 min read
1. Really imp new poll from @pewresearch folks: by far the most imp data point is that Trump's approval has FINALLY responded to a political event. Trump's approve % is just 29% & that can only happen bc FINALLY some Rs have deserted him- 17 pts worth of them. This is bc some R
2. electeds like @lisamurkowski are breaking from Trump & I swear if more elected Rs do so, if @senatemajldr supports impeachment, if more Rs like @jameslankford apologize for pushing the stolen election lie R voters will continue to move bc public

pewresearch.org/politics/2021/…
3. public sentiment is clearly conducive RIGHT NOW to a bandwagon effect against Trump. If you're a R influencer or have access to R influencers like my @ProjectLincoln peers like @Shermichael_, @RadioFreeTom @BillKristol @davidfrum @DavidAFrench @SarahLongwell25 @TaraSetmayer
4. @RepsForBiden @MichaelSteele @SykesCharlie @jerry_jtaylor @RuleandRuin @OldBullTV @JoeNBC @TheRickWilson @madrid_mike @reedgalen @stuartpstevens @SteveSchmidtSES THIS is the moment that we've been hoping for, for 5 years. R voters are moving away from Trump & with influencers
5. pushing them, the center of gravity could really swing. Move the voters- move the electeds in Congress.

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More from @RachelBitecofer

Rachel
16 Jan
1. OMG! Just finding out now, via @TiffanyDCross (love her show, THIS is why diversity MATTERS BTW) that there was a 538 analyst @farai whose work on demos & voting was intentionally surpressed by Nate Silver who patronized her when she confronted him for Image
2. & I'm sure she's never heard of me, or what happened to me or what I went through for the same reasons (my research argues that polarization/hyper partisanship -which is asymmetric (concentrated on the Right) is a product of the collapse of the white power paradigm & rise of
3. egalitarianism & argues that election outcomes are heavily conditioned on the demographic composition of the electorate (which campaigns should manipulate via their electioneering to win- IE: Georgia) & Silver has pretty aggressively shit on me & my research but back to her
Read 6 tweets
Rachel
15 Jan
1. As per @chucktodd's int w MI's Aty Gen @dananessel: she was surprised to find out that the National Rep Aty Gen Association (@RepublicanAGs) helped org the rally of extremists on the 6th. They are supposed to be on the side of law enforcement & even disregarding what ended up
2. happening, think about what this organization was up to. It was helping to org, it was inviting & enticing Americans to go to a rally, the theme of which was to overturn a democratic, free, fair, and verified to be free from fraud by extensive legal reviews election. Yet, the
3. Republican Party's main organization for law enforcement was there to support invalidating Joe Biden's election and overturning, literally ending democracy in America. I mean, MY GOD. This is the GOP's Aty Gen Association!! We really need the press to step up coverage of the
Read 4 tweets
Rachel
15 Jan
1. As @nytdavidbrooks just pointed out to @SRuhle on her show, despite collapsing into a radicalism so severe they are trying to end democracy, electorally the GOP is primed for a strong cycle in 2022, something we simply CANNOT allow them to have. And one reason is in 2020 they
2. experimented w targeting low-edu voters of all races to see if they could exploit them, relying on these voters to not know the GOP's real record on race & other issues. They found they could and what they plan to bring to bear on this effort in 2022 will be huge. This is one
3. of the main reasons I'm starting @StrikePac- I'm too afraid to signal warning to the Ds and just simply hope they do something after what happened in 2020. I wanted to be SURE this gets responded to. So a massive digital effort will be made to get the truth out to these voters
Read 4 tweets
Rachel
15 Jan
1. Here is a great job by @HerreraBeutler helping avg Americans pull together/understand how Trump/GOP connects to the insurrection on the Capitol. Again, few Americans are like YOU, they don't follow news daily. They need to be reminded as to how we got here. This is why I've
2. asked the major media outlets @MSNBC @CNN @FoxNews @washingtonpost @nytimes @WSJ etc to provide clear timeline accounts that show HOW the counting of the ballots produced Biden as the winner so that people will be able to see how it went from election night leads for Trump to
3. large Biden wins in the swing states. This would be a significant public service. It would also be great for any super pacs or organizations to run ads w this, ESPECIALLY on @FoxNews & if @StrikePac had the financing right now, I would do so. BC "curing" the Rep electorate of
Read 7 tweets
Rachel
14 Jan
1. In case you're wondering WTF is reconciliation and why is @MattGrossmann talking about it in relation to passing a spending bill?

Its the bypass our Congress has been using for YEARS now to hide the fact that it can no longer create policy under regular order so it pretends
2. new fiscal/spending/tax/healthcare! policy is altering current law so only 50 senate votes are needed and you can bypass the filibuster. This is why I'm not that popular among the very progressive people. I like to tell people the truth, deal in reality. etc & the truth is
3. even before our sitting prez was trying to pull off a coup- our country was in BAD shape bc we stopped being capable of creating policy over a decade ago, largely, unless its for the very mundane. Look around the world at other democracies & find one that is policy polarized.
Read 8 tweets
Rachel
14 Jan
1. Good news- my OG 2020 prez forecast- posted July 1st 2019, which I could not find anywhere online for awhile, is now back up, stored via @SSRN

In it I argued the D nom, no matter who is was, would dominate in the Midwest bc of surge turnout among

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2. all elements of the Democrat's voter coalition, including Indies that lean Dem, but most esp from GIANT surges of college educated voters in the 'burbs. It also said AZ was highly likely to flip.

Though it thought GA competitive, didn't say it would for sure flip.

IMP to
3. keep in mind, when this forecast released, the election analysis world was still very much entranced with the HillBilly Eulogy, non-college educated white Trump Army theory of 2020. If what I wrote seems like a no brainer bc its almost exactly what happened, you should know,
Read 10 tweets

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