Because it is so late a quick update

🦠🦠🦠48,682 new cases

⚰️⚰️⚰️. 1248 (28 day deaths)

There has been a problem with the death data feed today, so let’s wait until tomorrow for firmed up data. Image
And - just so @sarahknapton from the @TelePolitics understand how deaths by date of death works...

Today you will see that 11/1/21 shows 937 deaths...but there will be more because MOST deaths are not reported within a day or three. They get topped up. Image
So this was 28 cut off deaths by date of death yesterday

Do you see @sarahknapton

There were 730 deaths on that day that had been notified. Today another 217 for that day notified.

It will keep going up.

All those other days too. Image
🏥 HOSPITAL

Looks to me as if admissions are still going up. 4134 in England alone. Likely c 4477 for all 4 nations. Grim.

🛌 37,537 in patients If most recent data from each nation is a guide.

3670 ventilation bed.

A record across all measures. ImageImageImage
Applying the most conservative running total of known deaths

1/ ONS/ stats authority Covid certified deaths to 1/1/21 (their last report) 89,243 +

2/ deaths by date of death (28 day cut off) to be scrupulously sure there is no double counting 2/1/21. 13,789
Applying the most conservative running total of known deaths

1/ ONS/ stats authority Covid certified deaths to 1/1/21 (their last report) 89,243 +

2/ deaths by date of death (28 day cut off) to be scrupulously sure there is no double counting 2/1/21. 13,789 ImageImageImage
That totals (VERY conservatively)

⚰️💔⚰️💔⚰️💔⚰️ 103,032 COVID deaths

1 in every 660 U.K. citizens have died of Covid
By a very conservative count.

0.15% of the entire U.K. population.

In reality the death notification lag can be marked and that will increase as backfilled

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More from @fascinatorfun

16 Jan
Ongoing concern about how LFT and PCR tests are reported on the dashboard/T&T

@DrMikeWGill @deeksj might be interested
This illustrates why we are puzzled about what is being counted where

URGENT need to separate out LFT reporting outcomes & screening from symptomatic testing
The dashboard indicates the use of LFT in England (but not elsewhere) has shot up recently.

So is positivity going down because these tests are included in the denominator (albeit not in the numerator which I think is just PCR positives).

What happens re unclear LFT? QA? Image
Then there is this - same helpful thread from @_johnbye

IF they are including LFT in their positivity calculations (if only in the denominator) that is going to make it very difficult to decide if it is really going down or just diluted by LFT asymptomatic screening -ves.
Read 4 tweets
16 Jan
Capitol Police intelligence report warned three days before attack that ‘Congress itself’ could be targeted - The Washington Post

This really is quite shocking.

Explicit warnings in the intelligence report (not shared with the FBI)

There’s more... washingtonpost.com/politics/capit…
The report specifically warned of violence from thousands or enraged protestors egged on by Trump & flanked by white supremacists and extreme militia armed for battle :- Congress the target.

Who was briefed. Which key roles were not and why? Image
The day before the attack the FBI office in Virginia issued an explicit warning that extremists were preparing to travel to Washington to commit violence & “war”

Who was told this? Which key rôles with responsibility were not? Why?

What stand by arrangements did the FBI make? Image
Read 14 tweets
15 Jan
@pmdfoster @sff_uk @BorisJohnson It is critical to establish how they voted and why?

If they voted for remain then they did not seek this in any way.

If they voted leave then were they willing to watch other industries suffer to gain an advantage for themselves?

If so they have some soul searching to do.
@pmdfoster @sff_uk @BorisJohnson If they voted leave but realise now that what the campaign promised is quite literally undeliverable then I can understand how that happened.

What is NOT Ok is again to seek a solution that benefits them but harms others who account for more jobs and GDP.
@pmdfoster @sff_uk @BorisJohnson In reality the deal and NO deal harms nearly all

That has to be faced.

Because the solutions are not in the FTA.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
🦠🦠🦠55,761 new cases. Increase in recent days but this may be due to weekend home test kits picked up on Monday only just being processed. (55,242 by specimen date on Monday 11th)

So there’s several days lag in processing

ONS has had to defer its infection survey report too ImageImage
⚰️⚰️⚰️1280 deaths (28 day cut off by date reported).
7 day Average 1066 per day.

But looking at dates by date of deaths (and this week and likely last will still have several hundreds of deaths added to a spread of days) we can see that on Monday 11th there were 998 deaths ImageImageImage
More will likely be added to all these days over the coming weeks as notifications come in gradually from hospitals, care homes, institutions & private home death registrations.

If you want to look at ONS deaths by date of occurrence you can see it here

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image
Read 13 tweets
14 Jan
I wonder if a journalist @PaulBrandITV @C4Ciaran @lewis_goodall is going to tell the story of the first recorded (albeit very belatedly) COVID death that, from ONS records fell in the week ending 31/1/20.

Maybe also how so many Covid deaths were missed and likely mis-recorded?
See deaths by weekly occurrence (by date of death) here.

It also seems appropriate given both Telegraph and Spectator journalists seem to have got the wrong end of the stick re consequence of “normal” death notification lag & some v long (eg inquests).

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Interviews with people who are behind the data such as @NickStripe_ONS and maybe a coroner’s office with details about how deaths are notified and why some are so delayed.

Maybe a section on deaths by date of death in 2020, and why so very very sparse in the early months.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jan
the Great Barrington latest seems to be equivalent to

“The hospitals are packed with cancer and stroke patients so hospitals cause cancer and strokes”

Or

All these fat people have tomatoes in their fridges ergo tomatoes are making them fat.
The problem is that if you introduce and implement NPIs too little too late it will take longer for them to work.

As we have seen repeatedly in the U.K.
So if a country first introduces them - but too little - “wash you hands to happy birthday/ rule Britannia” - and cases still go up it is quite wrong to say “they” don’t work when more, sooner does (see NZ/ Vietnam/ Taiwan)
Read 5 tweets

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