I regret to inform you that what is happening in Manaus should scare everyone witless. theguardian.com/world/2021/jan…
It looks from the reports like all cause mortality is currently running ~6x normal in a population that is 90% under fifty. But worse, Manaus already achieved herd immunity, and certainly a high level of infections.
Levin et all applied their age specific mortality to a sero-study of 66% and got similar expectations to actual fatalities give the age structure. Good conditional evidence the sero study was ~accurate despite some sampling flaws.
So if Manaus has 70% immunity and yet is over run worse than march, then it isn’t enough for it to be more transmissible like the UK variant. The 70% reduction from immunity would more than balance it compared to march.
There are therefore two possibilities: (1) it is evading acquired immunity and (2) It is not only more transmissible but much more severe as well, and so is causing hospitalisations to be over run with a smaller number of infections.
This is extremely bad: I repeat, if the Brazilian strain is not evading acquired immunity, the it must be a dramatically worse virus. If it is evading acquired immunity then either immunity is transient or it’s an immunologically distinct strain.
Everyone should be taking this extremely seriously.

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More from @IronEconomist

9 Jan
What’s so weird about this article is that in the middle he basically admits that the YIMBY argument is correct.
Here he says that if a new development lures new rich people to the city it puts upwards pressure on all housing! This is the YIMBY argument! If you build more luxury housing and it increases the per capita stock it puts downwards pressure on all housing!
Even in this concocted argument where inwards migration causes prices to rise, it must by the same argument be putting downwards pressure on the city they left.
Read 6 tweets
22 Dec 20
This is a terrible idea. The reason it’s a terrible idea is that it’s virtually impossible. People who have worked with real data for years are often still abjectly terrible at it. As evidenced by the number of well credentialed experts who were revealed as charlatans by Covid.
See also the number of people who think that supply and demand do not apply to housing.
The number of criminologists who refuse to accept that almost all of the two massive crime waves in America were driven by lead poisoning. And probably also teen pregnancy rates.
Read 11 tweets
22 Nov 20
They also attend properly to the effects of reporting lags in death:
This leaves them with the following sample:
And they find the following:
Read 17 tweets
3 Sep 20
So there seems to be a myth taking hold among the twitter commentariat that a lot of housing economists think that the rise in house prices in the UK is well explained by interest rates alone. This.... is not the expert consensus. Here is a thread of papers (in no partic order).
Nice recent paper using a planning dataset from the uk:
Starts with a nice little literature review:
Read 18 tweets
12 May 20
ONS now recorded 46380 excess deaths by May first. Deaths are coming off but there are still going to have been many thousands since May first, we are certainly over 50k already, and it seems doubtful death rates will fully normalise before we reach 60k.
60000 deaths is 0.1% of the population. This means a sero-prevalence at 10% would lead to an IFR of 1%. In the last ten days we have had three pieces of information that make it likely the total attack rate closer to 5% than 10% in the UK, and consequently an IFR near 2%.
Firstly Patrick Vallence gave a preview of the UK ongoing serology study (due May 14th I believe): parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/78… look around 10:20-10:20. 10% in London 3-4% UK wide.
Read 7 tweets
24 Apr 20
So I was reading this excellent analysis of how GRR Martin's books differ from the medieval world, and it brought together a few thoughts I have been having for a while: acoup.blog/2019/06/12/new…
One of the reasons I find history so fascinating, is that it somehow reveals how our modern world is anomalous, and I think one way in which our world is particularly unusual, is the lack of real constraints on elite behaviour.
And by elite here I do not just mean billionaires, I mean university professors, and small bushiness owners and journalists. The top 10% on some ranking of financial power and prestige.
Read 21 tweets

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