Noticing this map going around showing the long term impact of Communism on the former East Germany (noticing also there were underground churches in the former DDR as well as an official church in which Angela Merkel's father was a pastor). In the West, the pre-war continues.
Germany's Reformation settlement had, generally, Protestantism strongest in the North & East with Catholicism strongest on the Rhine and in Bavaria. To survive as a large minority, Catholics (of all classes) had their own party (and best art) from 1870s: the Zentrum/Centre Party
In simplex, the electoral history of Germany pre-1933 was the Catholic Centre Party winning the Rhineland & Bavaria versus whoever won periodic battles between the Old Right, Social Democrats, Communists & Nazis.
Nazis' rose against very strong local Communist & Social Democratic parties in North & East - all these parties battled for essentially the same Protestant working/aspiring class demos. Catholics simply voted for the Zentrum from the Kulturkampf onwards to its end in 1933.
German Catholics of all classes voted for the Centre Party pre-1933 as they do now for the CDU/CSU - a historical continuity going back to the Reformation and Bismarck's brief but unwise kulturkampf. The anti-Nazi resistance was always Catholic-based well beyond Stauffenberg & Co
Nazis were least successful in Catholic areas of Germany. Where Catholics were, esp South & West, the Centre Party did very well. Whereas the Nazis main electoral success was in North & East. This held in 2017 ie CDU/CSU base in Bavaria/Rhine vs AfD grows from old Prussia & DDR
Angela Merkel grew up in the DDR with a father pastoring in the Communist church - and yet she was made Chancellor despite great misgivings of this bio. Odds are, though, her successsor looks more like her than a Franz Josef Strauss. Bavaria/Rhine still on outer, even now.
Zentrum folding in 1933 was a (if not the) great tragedy of Weimar politics. Zentrum could have been an alternative voice but, as Catholicism solidified its electoral base, this also meant it was never mainstream enough to be a sufficient alternative to the Red & Brown extremes
The most idiotic of Weimar politics was the social democrats/liberals' 'Three Arrows' push - which held the Monarchists (ie the people who would lead the Valkyrie resistance) were as dangerous as the Communists & Nazis. Proof that liberal stupidity knows no geographic boundaries.
Anyway there was a range of ways that 1933 could have been different & all involve the Zentrum & monarchists .... the grasping buffoonery of Kurt von Schleicher was one wild card but then the Nazis murdered him & his wife on the NOTLK

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More from @GrayConnolly

15 Jan
Noting Sal's disappointment: a Bill of Attainder is a legislative judgment of guilt. In the 17thC esp the Parliament could function as/usurp the role of a Court to judge persons for crimes & vote on their guilt (with or without a trial) & assign a punishment, including death.
To be clear: the major vice of a Bill of Attainder is that the legislature invades the realm of the Court .... also that the legislature may vote X as guilty of vague crimes otherwise not previously be known as to law & entirely on the basis of prejudice against X & not evidence.
Bills of Attainder often specified in the Bill that X was guilty of crime Y and must suffer death - we are most horrified by death as a punishment but historically it was very common, especially in political cases involving loyalties & success/corruption in governmental workings
Read 11 tweets
10 Jan
Good morning all & OTD in 49BC, Gaius Julius Caesar & his Army crossed the Rubicon. Caesar had served as a military tribune, quaestor, praetor, Consul & pro-consul, conquering Gaul. When a corrupt Senate sought Caesar's recall, he commenced his march on Rome. "Alea iacta est"
Not sure if it is the date but noticing a lot of very bad Roman history takes. The Romans of 49BC did have massive senatorial corruption problems. But also a huge problem of underemployed Romans, as empire's growth meant slaves (product of conquest) doing formerly paid work doing
I find Roman history endlessly fascinating - #SPQR and all that - but in 49BC, everyone (even people I otherwise despise like Cicero and Cato) were serious people, not grifting, not performing. What should worry was Caesar & his Army pushed at an open door, winning many over.
Read 5 tweets
10 Jan
Australia setting up a good lead here - 4/182 at lunch with a lead of 276. The pitch at the SCG historically falls apart in the last two days and is terrible for the last innings, which will be India's dilemma.
#AUSvIND
The problem with this Australian summer is we simply do not have enough Test cricket. Even with Covid, we need a longer Test series. It is great for national morale amid the plague and esp as we are playing against India, one of our favourite rivals. #AUSvIND
India's lunchtime discussion seems to have been about helping Smith to get to his century as soon as possible
#AUSvIND
Read 5 tweets
9 Jan
Watching the American Right finally realise that their hitherto venerated corporations - which are creatures of statute dependent on public goods - have too much power over the lives of others, even in today's unmeritorious scenario, is really something. Whither minimum wages?
If you want to be really "conservative" while hurting the over-mighty corporations, and "conserve" families & civic virtues, then legislate to mandate corporations paying living wages, employees get parental and carers' leave, and broad tax anti-avoidance provisions.
One downside of social media is its (ceaseless) promotion of the political pantomine where the partisan grifters & performance artists engage in these kabuki fights ("most important election ever" etc) when, in reality, elections are held & yet nothing of substance ever changes
Read 4 tweets
9 Jan
I know this is a very unpopular opinion (as pretty much all of mine are) but everyone here should be verified in some way. I realise this means it is harder for the Ruritanian dissident to get her/his voice heard, but I cannot help thinking it would make this a more civil place.
I am happy for people who feel they cannot tweet under a legal name to have some useful pseudonym but the platform would be infinitely better if all users were verified by Twitter, had to pay a nominal fee, with some accountability mechanism implemented.
I have a reasonably ursine/rhino hide when it comes to abuse - I went to a Jesuit school & some of it is actually quite funny, esp after going on the ABC - but many people do not do broader media here (who well could) because the anonymous abuse directed at them is so bad.
Read 5 tweets
8 Jan
While I think "A Clockwork Orange" is terrible, the "Droogs" in it do depict a young male demo, of semi-employed & directionless (often fatherless) guys looking for trouble. I cannot help thinking the economy & esp the pandemic/lockdowns make an already bad situation worse here
One of many big problems with journalism living on social media is it will inevitably skew media interests towards 'people like us'/feminine stories - whereas the past year has seen enormous amounts of wanton public violence by mainly young guys who have little else better to do
If you are a guy esp if you had parents & in a profession/trade etc & some younger guy comes to you for advice/guidance, give them help. It could be you are the older brother they never had. Based on experience of last decade, so many young guys have no one they can ask for help
Read 6 tweets

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