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15 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Retail sales fell for the third straight month in December -- clear sign the resurgent pandemic is taking a toll.
Important to note, though, that unlike with most measures of the economy, retail sales are actually ABOVE their prepandemic level. Up 2.6% from February, and 2.9% over the past year. So not a clean story like with jobs.
Very different story with restaurants, of course. They were down much more in December (-4.5%), and are down more than 20% since before the pandemic.
Online sales are falling back to earth, which is no surprise (still up 19% from a year ago). Similar story with grocery stores. But falling sales in categories that were thriving, combined with renewed declines in pandemic-hit sectors, means lower retail spending overall.

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More from @bencasselman

Ben Casselman Profile picture
15 Jan
Given the renewed attention on the possibility of a $15 federal minimum wage, it's worth noting that "$15/hour" looks very different in 2021 than it did when the "Fight for $15" movement began in 2012. (Thread)
Obviously, there's been some inflation. $15 in 2012 is the equivalent of around $17 today. But that's only a small part of it. At least before the pandemic, wages were rising faster than inflation, *especially for low earners.*
In 2012, a quarter of jobs were in places where the median wage was under $15/hour (meaning more than half of all workers in those places would have been owed raises). In 2019, less than 5% of jobs were in such places. Image
Read 17 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
14 Jan
Big spike in unemployment claims last week: 1.2 million people filed for unemployment benefits (regular state programs, not seasonally adjusted). Another 284k filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.
nytimes.com/live/2021/01/1…
Important to note that the big jump may reflect a bounceback after the holidays, when filings are often depressed. But this level is extraordinarily high by any measure.
Seasonally adjusted claims also jumped, to just under 1 million.
Read 7 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
2 Jan
A year ago, I did a thread on my efforts to diversify my source list. I tracked the race and gender of my sources again this year. In the interest of accountability, here's an update on my progress.

Here's my original thread for reference:
Topline findings: Roughly half of my 400+ sources this year were women, including a hair over half of the people I quoted as experts (and just under half of the people I quoted as "regular people" -- workers, business owners, etc.).
(Note: I also have a category for elected officials, spokespeople, etc. They're included in the totals here but not broken out separately.)
Read 24 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
25 Dec 20
Just got some very grim Christmas Eve news for unemployed workers: If the president doesn't sign the relief bill by the end of the day on Saturday, it will effectively cut the extension of the expiring unemployment programs to 10 weeks from 11.
nytimes.com/2020/12/24/us/…
Here's why: The bill says that the benefits won't be available for "any week of unemployment commencing before the date of the enactment of this Act." So if Trump doesn't sign the bill until next week, people can't get benefits until the FOLLOWING week.
But the *end date* of benefits doesn't change: March 14 (with a phase-out lasting until April 5). So workers would effectively lose a week of benefits. Note this applies to the $300 supplement as well.
Read 6 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
23 Dec 20
President Trump has thrown the fate of the relief bill into doubt just as economic data show why the help is so desperately needed.
nytimes.com/2020/12/23/bus…
Even a short delay could have severe consequences for the millions of Americans whose unemployment benefits run out at the end of this week.
As @EvermoreMichele told me: “Every day that this drags on, that’s a day that it’s hard to put food on the table for the kids, it’s another bill missed, it’s just another hardship,”
Read 5 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
23 Dec 20
869,000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week (regular state programs, not seasonally adjusted). Another 398,000 filed for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which will expire after this week if the president doesn't sign the new relief package.
nytimes.com/live/2020/12/2…
Both regular state claims and PUA were down from the week before but remain above their early November level.
Meanwhile personal income fell for the second straight month in November, and consumer spending fell for the first time since the spring.
(Corrected date in chart.)
Read 7 tweets

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