Thread by @jburnmurdoch

NEW video from me & @tomhannen addressing more myths that have been used to play down Covid this winter.

Featuring:
• Why delays in death registration (& bad charts) wrongly led people to think there was minimal excess mortality
• "Excess winter deaths" are not "excess deaths"

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1350042546089545730

For several weeks, some lockdown-sceptics have been sharing the EuroMOMO excess mortality charts which they say show we’re not seeing many more deaths than usual for the time of year.

A few days ago, EuroMOMO indeed showed deaths essentially back to normal in England. But...

Despite EuroMOMO stating that figures in recent weeks shaded in yellow have been "corrected for delays in [death] registration", this is clearly not the case.

Week after week, the line appears to be falling back to normal, but without fail it’s then revised upwards every time.

What was a few days ago 'deaths back to normal in England in final week of 2020', has been revised up to 'deaths far higher than normal'.

Personally, I fail to see any reason to publish data for most recent weeks if it’s always wrong, and often miles out. It fuels conspiracies.

In fact, @PHE_uk estimates we have now seen more than 21,000 excess deaths in England alone since September, with the number now running at more than 600 per day.

That’s 600 additional deaths per day above an already high winter baseline.

I’ve also updated comparisons of pressure on hospitals this winter vs bad flu seasons.

Last week’s figure of 17 flu admissions per million people has been revised up to 19, and this week’s is
24, which means the equivalent of 1/3 of total ICU capacity were admitted in one week.

Unsurprisingly, this means ICUs are overflowing.

There were 1,361 people in London ICUs on January 10th (chart shows 7-day average). The record high point in the grim winter flu season of 2017-18 was 770, putting this year’s levels 77% above that high water mark.

As well as expanded comparisons of pressure on hospitals this winter vs in bad flu seasons, I also explain why you can’t compare the 50k "excess winter deaths" in 2017-18 (completely different definition & calculation) to the excess deaths we’ve been talking about all year.

So for all of the above and more, please do watch the full video here: ft.com/video/0cd6f9f9…

In more positive news, case rates & test positivity have been falling for over a week across most of England, suggesting current restrictions are working.

R is almost certainly currently below 1.

In time, this should ease hospital pressure, but we need to keep doing our part.

UK vaccination rollout also continues to pick up pace, reaching 279,000 shots delivered on Wednesday, the highest figure to date.

The light at the end of the tunnel is growing brighter, making it all the important that we keep the virus in check for these final weeks & months.