Thread by @SteveSayersOne

#HNY 15/1/21 #Scexit Poll update. Remember headline results of +50% LeaveUK normally EXCLUDE undecideds. Most polls only use a sample subset & leading/soft questions. SNP internal target? 60% polling for 1yr. Even gifting ALL undecideds? Target is rarely ever reached. #SNPOut

New Savanta Comres Scotsman poll shows LeaveUK at 51% (down 1% from Comres poll in Dec after peaking at 55% in Oct 20). Headlines say 57% but that ignores important non-committed voters. 1016 potential Scots voters were polled, 12% were weighted OUT to 894 - producing 51%/38%/10%

This means DK's are artificially reduced IMO. Interestingly Comres played around with weighting & adjusted results 4 a set of 847, producing a LeaveUK "win" of 47%/43%/10% (Tables further down in thread). As always, gifting LeaveUK ALL undecideds gets them nowhere near SNP target

Here's their hill 2 climb. If we have another #Scexit vote the game will be very, very, different from 2014. Economics have changed significantly & Covid will make people focus HARD on the economy & another 12 months p1ss poor performance (if SNP gets a May majority) will hurt.

The current internal machinations re splits on woke policies, who is going to stand where, the Salmond Enquiry & fallout on top of their awful divisive woeful 'administration', 'cos u cant call it Government, will not help SNP fortunes. Roll on May (if it happens). Comres tables;

Covid will definitely come back to bite them (SNP) once this data is understood. Don't let them pretend they are any better at all, in fact, worse in many cases.

https://twitter.com/SteveSayersOne/status/1349422616331870211?s=20

BTW, if you look at the latest Comres tables in detail, things shift radically for those 35+, whose votes would be RemainUK 49%. LeaveUK 39% & DK's 12% - guess which age group actually votes most. 16-34 or 35 +? 😏