Thread by @RichardRubinDC

Let's just pick up this old thread from MARCH 11, 2020 and wait, what's that?

The Treasury Department, has, in its waning hours, attempted to answer the "Did TCJA pay for itself?" question!!!!!

Here's their letter today to Rep. Beyer.

beyer.house.gov/uploadedfiles/…

And here are the numbers!!!!

home.treasury.gov/system/files/1…

Look forward to seeing others dig deeper into these numbers. But let's note that the actual assertion is no longer that TCJA will pay for itself but more that TCJA plus other admin priorities would pay for TCJA. Except for the pandemic and some other stuff.

I think they're kinda saying that FY20 revenue was $288 billion higher than it would have been without TCJA. Am I reading that right?

Ye olde timestamp informs me that Treasury sent this letter to Beyer's office at 3:57 pm on the Friday before a three-day weekend, after which the administration will have a day and a morning left.

I would also note that > 100% of the claimed revenue increase occurs in FY26 and FY27. Hmm.

This might be my favorite line from the letter. Yes, this table and its footnoted links to JCT tables is a model of explaining policies and their consequences to Americans.

Anyway, color me as still super-super-dubious at best of the TCJA-paid-for-itself claim. (Which is not the same thing as saying that tax cuts have no growth effect.)

Hope you all enjoyed this fine Friday diversion from [everything] and I look forward to your #takes.

That is, during the pandemic, Trump administration policies were causing a huge, beyond-trend surge in government revenues, per this Treasury analysis. That’s the kind of result that should make one question all the assumptions that go into the analysis.