Thread by @bansisharma

1. On Covid Death Count

There is a rampant misimpression that Covid deaths are just a counting game. It is not. While it is true that Covid deaths mean "died with Covid," not necessarily "died of Covid," the overall data is not as misleading as some make it out to be.

2. While the impulse to think that Covid has not taken as big a toll on humanity as the numbers indicate is rooted in a noble impulse to believe that in this day and age, with all the advances in medicine, how can we be so helpless. This must be just politicians fooling us.

3. While there is definitely some truth to numbers being inaccurate because of perverse incentives and human error and inconsistent data reporting instructions, we now have enough data gathered over 2020 that directionally an accurate picture emerges. And it really is horrible.

4. To review the data from the highest level, we can look at the total number of deaths from all causes in the United States over the last four years to see if there actually have been more deaths, no matter how they are categorized, in the U.S. in 2020.

5. Keep in mind that as per CDC, the death data has an in-built delay of 8-12 weeks. So we still do not have the full year numbers for 2020, and we will not have the full year numbers until end of February. In other words the numbers for total deaths for 2020 are understated.

6. That said, let us look at the data for total deaths as published by CDC. Here it is:

2017 (51 weeks): 2,751,037
2018 (52 weeks): 2,839,076
2019 (52 weeks): 2,852,747
2020 (52 weeks): 3,293,775

So in 2020, we did have roughly 450K more deaths compared with previous years.

7. Currently the death toll from Covid-19 being reported nationally is about 400K. This jibes with the 450K "excess deaths" mentioned in the previous tweet. The 50K deaths, over and above Covid, are presumably due to measures taken to combat Covid. Shutdowns also cause deaths.

8. We should use the knowledge gained over the last year to implement better policies to deal with Covid going forward. More and more data is emerging that shutdowns are an overly blunt and costly solution. We need to do better.
wsj.com/articles/covid…

9. Equally, we must not deny that Covid is indeed a serious problem, far worse than a "regular flu" as some have come to believe, despite all evidence to the contrary. Demand better solutions, but don't deny the reality of Covid-19. It has and continues to kill too many.

The End